A picture is worth 10,000 words...
By: Raman Khanna
High R&D spending does NOT guarantee growth and/or high shareholder returns
The chart below courtesey of Eric | AI & Tech Investing shows semiconductor companies ranked by R&D over the last 12 months. $INTC $QCOM $NVDA $AMD $TSM lead the way. Intel has spent over $100B in R&D over the last decade. Despite that, they have the 2nd lowest shareholder return of all these companies (see addt'l chart below). Intel has generated $52.9B in revenue over the last twelve months. A decade ago, Intel generated $52.4B in revenue. An important cautionary tale for investors: R&D doesn't guarantee growth. Source: Eric | AI & Tech Investing
Odds of rate cuts beginning as soon as January 2024 are rising quickly
There is now a ~15% chance of rate cuts beginning next month. The base case shows a ~56% chance of rate cuts beginning in March 2024. Markets are currently expecting a total of FIVE 25 basis point rate cuts in 2024. Still, the Fed has yet to discuss the possibility of any rate cuts at all. Markets are fully bought in to the "Fed pivot." We believe that the economy will continue to slow down and that rate cuts will take place next year. However, a lot pof these cuts are already priced in. This could generate some volatility for bonds and stocks in case of disappoinment (aka macro data surprising on the upside). Source: The Kobeissi Letter
INDIA IN THE TOP 5!
India's stock market hit a milestone this week. It's now a $4 trillion market. Here's how that looks alongside the world's biggest. Source: David Ingles, Bloomberg
Liquidity continue to matters for stocks
Source: www.zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
“Mr. 4MM” buys Bitcoin for approx. $4 million USD, several times a day, regardless of the price
He already bought 2x $4mm today. Source: CC15Capital
Elon Musk continues to roll out his plans to transform X into a financial company within the next 12 months
Time will tell
The US job market is starting to crater...
With consensus expecting only a modest drop from the reported September 9.553 million job openings, what the BLS reported moments ago instead was a stunning collapse of 617K job openings to just 8.733 million, the lowest since March 2021. This was a 6-sigma miss to the consensus estimate of 9.3 million... Source: www.zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
