As highlighted by Jim Bianco, isn't the "Fed consensus" just an illusion?
See the labels in the dot plot below: one member of the FOMC thinks the Fed is going to HIKE rates this year. One (Stephen Miran) thinks it is going to cut 1.25% this year (5 cuts over two meetings). And see the spread of dots above (from highest to lowest), the FOMC is showing little to no agreement on what they should do. So on one hand there is an 11-1 vote On the other hand they published a wide dot plot... Add to this is Powell using the term "Risk Management" to describe this cut... It could thus be that "Risk Management" cut is a political decision. As Jim Bianco said "he wants to get Trump off his back". Source: Bianco Research
While everyone is moving away from humans towards ai, hedge fund giant de shaw is doing the opposite and launching its first ever fund run by humans, not ai.
DE Shaw is raising as much as $5 Billion in its first Hedge Fund run by humans. The D.E. Shaw Cogence Fund will trade stocks and credit. Source: Bloomberg, Nishant Kumar @nishantkumar07, Gurgavin
In case you missed it... 30-Year US Mortgage Rate plunges to 6.49%, the lowest level in almost 12 months
Source: Barchart
Institutional investors are the most bullish since the February peak in stocks and no longer see a trade war as the biggest risk.
According to Bank of America’s September fund manager survey (covering $426bn AUM), risk appetite is back at its highest since Feb 2025, when the S&P 500 last hit an intermediate peak : The trade war narrative is fading. Optimism is rising. Risk is back on. source : BofA
Mystery Trader Makes Record Bet On 50bps Rate Cut Today
The trade took place in the October fed funds, for an amount of 84,000 contracts which is equivalent to $3.5 million per basis point in risk. the price and timing of the trade was consistent with a buyer, potentially indicating a hedge against a half-point rate cut at Wednesday’s policy meeting, given a quarter-point cut is now fully baked into the swaps market. The CME confirmed this was the largest ever block trade in Fed Funds Futures... Source. zerohedge
From yesterday's Financial Times article, “EU economy falls behind global rivals due to complacency.”
“One year on, Europe is . . . in a harder place,” Draghi told a news conference on Tuesday. “Our growth model is fading. Vulnerabilities are mounting . . . and we have been reminded, painfully, that inaction threatens not only our competitiveness but our sovereignty itself.” “Too often, excuses are made for this slowness. We say it is simply how the EU is built. Sometimes inertia is even presented as respect for the rule of law,” Draghi added. “That is complacency.” https://lnkd.in/e3facfZk
In the US, searches for "help with mortgage" surpass 2008 housing crisis.
Source: Polymarket @Polymarket
As highlighted by @AndreasSteno on X, the credit impulse is turning positive.
That is not what you normally see in a slowdown...
