Orange juice futures are trading like a meme stock! The surge is mainly driven by #supply driven (exarcebated by speculators positioning). The 2 supply issues are the following:
1/ Extreme weather intensified by global heating ravaged this season’s crop of the citrus fruit: last year Florida, which produces more than 90% of the US’s orange juice supply, was hit by Hurricane Ian, Hurricane Nicole and freezing conditions in quick succession, devastating orange producers in the Sunshine State. 2/ A bacterial disease -> Florida Producers battled an incurable citrus greening disease that is spread by an invasive insect, rendering fruit unusable. Most infected trees die within a few years, and some producers said they were giving up farming and selling their land. Industry figures said US orange production would reach its lowest level for more than a century. Source: The Guardian, Longview Economics
Why this time is different (I know this is a dangerous sentence...)
Asset managers are very long 10-year futures, expecting yields to fall from here! This is a very different set-up than in 2007 when asset managers were expecting #yields to rise... Source: Bloomberg
US equities: absolute & relative valuations offer a different perspective
•On the positive side, market (absolute) valuations have improved as stock prices have dipped and earnings have held up •On the negative side, the rise in bond yields imply a lower Equity Risk Premium (ERP), now at 39bps (19-year low), i.e equities are more expensive vs. bonds than at the start of the Summer... Source: Edward Jones, BofA
The number of unicorns is plummeting
Since 2018, over 250 new unicorns have been minted each year, with the exception of 2021, when this number spiked to 787 – a rate of more than two unicorns per day. In 2022, new unicorn creation collapsed in 2022. Peak to trough there was a 90% drop in the new unicorn rate within five quarters. Just 21 new unicorns were created in Q1 2023. Source: Dealroom.co, TME
The Bank of Japan is purchasing government bonds at a record pace this year
A factor that likely prompted its recent move to allow larger yield movements to reduce the strain on its control of longer-term #interestrates. Source: Bloomberg
Disinflationary forces are intensifying in Germany
Producer Prices drop for 1st time since 2020, a good leading indicator for Consumer Prices. In July, producer prices (PPI) fell by 6.0% YoY, the biggest decline since October 2009, when the financial crisis has caused prices to collapse. Last year, the prices received by manufacturers for their goods had at times risen at a record rate of 45.8%. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Solo miner bags entire block reward with just 1PH of power
An astoundingly lucky solo miner solved block number 803,821 late Friday night and won the entire 6.25 bitcoin block reward, worth approximately $162,000.
Con Kolivas, the admin of Solo CKPool, announced the unlikely news on X, formerly Twitter, saying that this particular miner had only 1 petahash of computing power, yet still came out on top. “A miner of this size would only solve a block solo on average once every 7 years at current [difficulty],” Kolivas wrote. The miner kept nearly all the bitcoin (BTC) he won, aside from a 2% fee that went to Solo CKPool for its upkeep.
Source: Blockworks
Treasury 10-Year real yield tops 2% for first time since 2009
The yield on 10-year inflation-protected Treasuries extended its ascent from year-to-date lows near 1%.
Rising real yields reflect firmer economy and higher deficit.
Source: Bloomberg
