Charlie Munger on complex DCF models
Source: Brian Feroldi
VIX seasonality suggest some volatile months ahead for stocks
Vix Seasonality
The Magnificent Seven have added nearly $4.2T in market cap this year, led by Apple’s $AAPL $781B increase and Nvidia’s $NVDA $745B rise
Microsoft $MSFT, Amazon $AMZN, and Meta $META all have added over $500B as well. Will it last? Source: Beth_Kindig
This could be a problem for sugar prices which already hit 12-year highs back in May
Source: Barchart
Saudi Aramco 2Q 2023 profit vs. profits of the Majors
Source: company results
Market-implied inflation expectations over the next 5-10 years have risen to the highest levels in more than a year
Traders are starting to game out a future with sustainably higher inflation and higher long-term bond yields. Source: Bloomberg, Lisa Abramowiz
Unicredit under pressure
Unicredit (UCG IM) is under pressure. Keep an eye on next support level 20.69 ! If it can't hold that level, the next majort support zone to look at will be 19.60-20.00. Source : Bloomberg
Why is the German Yield Curve Sharply Steepening?
The German yield curve has experienced an impressive steepening of almost 60bps in just one month! This significant movement can be attributed to several key factors that are driving the shift: Fundamentals and Economic Outlook: One of the primary drivers behind this steepening is the market's reassessment of the potential avoidance of a recession. There's a positive repricing of economic fundamentals, suggesting improved prospects for growth and stability. Additionally, there's growing concern about structural inflation running higher than initially expected. Notably, the German 5-year breakeven rate has surged to 2.63%, reaching its highest level since 2009, which has translated into higher long-term yields. Front-End Yield Curve Repricing: The recent decisions made by the European Central Bank (ECB) have also played a role in the steepening. Firstly, the ECB chose to no longer remunerate the bank's minimum reserve held at the central bank. Additionally, today's surprise decision by the Bundesbank's Executive Board further impacted the market. The decision was to remunerate domestic government deposits held with the Bundesbank at 0%, starting from 1 October 2023. Both of these developments could potentially increase demand for German short-term papers. Source: Bloomberg.
