Cash now earns more than the S&P 500 by the largest margin in 23 years
Source: TME, Bloomberg
HAVE YOU EVER HEARD ABOUT DE-EUROIZATION ?
Based on SWIFT international payments, we are witnessing 'de-euroization' and not 'dedollarization. The euro's share in SWIFT global payments has dropped to 23% from 38% at the start of the year. Are Russia's SPFS and China's CIPS eating up the euro? Meanwhile, China's share in SWIFT payments reached an all-time high of 3.47% in August. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Consumer balance sheets are getting stretched
Accumulating debt during a low interest rates environment is one thing. But in light of the continuous surge of the price of money, the US consumer is probably starting to feel the pain Source: Crescat Capital, Bloomberg
The gap between oil and 10 year breakevens is huge...
Does it mean that the market sees higher oil prices as a "growth killer" and thus disinflationary at some stage? Source chart: TME, Refinitiv
“Soft Landing” is still the consensus. But consensus doesn’t have a good track record...
Source: Game of Tardes
Sentiment among consumers in Germany keeps deteriorating as persistently high inflation encourages people to save & blots out chances of a recovery before year-end
GfK German Consumer Sentiment Index drops to -26.5 in Oct from -25.6 in Sep. An indicator BELOW 0 signals YoY contraction in private consumption. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
TIPS - A Revival in Focus!
Long-term U.S. Treasury Inflation Protection Securities (TIPS) have witnessed a significant double-digit decline since the start of 2022, despite the presence of high U.S. inflation. While the inflation-linked component has acted as a safety net, providing a cushion of around 10% over 20 months, the surge in the 10-year real rate from -1.0% to 2.2% over the same period has had a marked and negative impact on the total TIPS yield (-14%). Yet, the question lingers: Is now the opportune moment to contemplate TIPS? We are currently at a level of LT real rates (2.23%) not seen since 2008. Interestingly, TIPS exhibit a lower beta compared to U.S. Treasuries (currently standing at 0.8). This attribute becomes especially valuable in light of the considerable volatility in U.S. interest rates (with the MOVE index still >100). hould we delve into the realm of inflation-linked bonds, which constitute a global market valued at over $3.5 trillion? This consideration gains significance as uncertainties surrounding inflation persist, driven by factors like de-globalization, supply shocks, increased fiscal spending, and the ongoing transition to renewable energy sources. Source: Bloomberg
Zero Day Options (0DTE) now account for half of total SP500 options volume
Source: Barchart
