First time in 2023 that ElectionBettingOdds has had Trump in the lead
Source: Bespoke
Flows are still not coming into publicly-listed bitcoin funds (including etfs)
Source: JPM, TME
This chart tells the story:
The rate priced in for the Fed’s December 2024 meeting hit a new high for this cycle at 4.7%, meaning investors have sharply trimmed their hopes of interest rate cuts in 2024. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Humility
Source: Strati Georgopoulos
0DTE trading in $SPX options accounts for a record 49% of total trading volume
Source: Markets & Mayhem
Crude oil prices are booming and is now up 34.5% since late June BUT THIS IS NOT JUST A SUPPLY STORY - WATCH OUT DEMAND AS WELL!!!
The OPEC+ (Saudi/Russian) production cuts are the easy culprit to blame for higher prices. They do matter. But another equally important factor is booming demand. Bloomberg uses Department of Energy data for production, imports, and inventory changes to "input" the weekly demand for crude oil. Below is a five-week average to smooth the noise. Demand is through the roof! This suggests the economy is okay (aka "no landing") as there are few if any, signs of "demand destruction." The combo OPEC+ cutting back + demand booming = 34.5% crude oil rally in 10 weeks... Is there more to come? Source: Jim Bianco
McKinsey annual State of artificial intelligence survey is here, and the results confirm 2023 is all about generative AI:
by McKinsey & co
Rising Italian Yields and the Looming Debt Question: What Lies Ahead for Eurozone?
The 10-year Italian yield has reached its highest level since March, while the difference between the 10-year Italian and German yields is trading above 180bps for the first time since June. Beyond speculating on whether the ECB will raise interest rates to 4% or not, the significance of Italy's debt burden should be a fundamental concern, especially if they announce a new tightening of their monetary policy by ending reinvestments in their PEPP program or, worse still, making further disinvestments under the APP program.
