Today is the BIG DAY with Nvidia ($NVDA) earnings results after the bell
With the Nasdaq up more than 13% from the lows, $NVDA at all-time-high, 95% of sell-side analysts with a BUY rating on $NVDA (!) sentiment of AI probably at record optimistic level after Microsoft "aqui-hire" of openai and the $VIX historically low at 13.5, there is indeed room for a short-term pullback... Source: www.investing.com, kakashiii111
The biggest bull market post-COVID has not been in the Magnificent 7 or any other equity markets; it has been in these two commodities:
1) Orange Juice: 246% 2) Uranium: 568% Source: Macrobond, Sagar Singh Setia
10-Year US Term Premium Dips Back into Negative Territory! 📉🔍
The term premium, a metric reflecting the additional yield demanded by investors for holding longer-term bonds rather than rolling over shorter-dated securities, turned negative last week. This shift could be interpreted as a signal that the market is anticipating a recession in the US in 2024, with rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (1% fully discounted already by the market). Given the recent rally of more than 50 basis points on the 10-year US Treasury yield and the term premium now in negative territory, coupled with still very high rate volatility, the question arises: Will the rally in long rates temporarily come to a halt? 🤔 Source: Bloomberg
Gold trying to break resistance
Gold (XAU) has reached the last resistance 2009 level before the major resistance zone 2050-2075. Will it have enough strenght after a 10% rallye since October ? Source : Bloomberg
The Global Fixed Income Landscape Regains Its Color! 📈🌐
After a dip to -4% year-to-date just a month ago, the global fixed income investment universe is now on a sharp rebound, driven by improving inflation signals hinting at a potential rate peak by central banks (already materialized in some emerging market countries). The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index, a widely tracked and comprehensive global bond indicator, has returned to positive territory in 2023 since last week. This upturn signifies a positive development for fixed income investors who have navigated challenges over the past three years, with a cumulative total return of -20% since the end of 2020. Are we entering a sunnier future for fixed income investments? ☀️ Source: Bloomberg
US bank stocks never recovered from the regional banking crisis. Currently, US bank stocks are at record lows relative to the S&P 500
According to Moodys, major US banks are sitting on $650 billion in unrealized losses. Meanwhile, the looming commercial real estate (CRE) crisis has small banks in question. Small banks currently hold ~70% of all CRE loans in the US, $1.5 trillion of which need to be refinanced by 2025. Source: BofA, The Kobeissi Letter
Thanksgiving to Santa Claus Rally trade starts on Tuesday
S&P 500 up 79.45% of the time since 1950. Avg performance: +2.57%. Trade combines the best consecutive 3-month span, Santa Claus Rally and January Effect. Source: StockTradersAlmanac.com, Jeffrey A. Hirsch
US Leading Indicators Tumble For 19th Straight Month
Worst Streak 'Since Lehman' on a year-over-year basis, the LEI is down 7.6% (down YoY for 16 straight months) - close to its biggest YoY drop since 2008 (Lehman) outside of the COVID lockdown-enforced collapse... Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
