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Great chart by Otavio (Tavi) Costa which summarizes very well what the Treasury market it currently trying to tell us:
▶️ Front end of the curve (short-term rates): the growing influence of the "shadow Fed chair" on short-term rates ▶️ Long end of the curve (30Y): The mounting fiscal disarray It seems that risk assets and store of values are the main beneficiaries of this backdrop. Source: Bloomberg, Tavi Costa
$TLT vs. $SPX
New lows for LT Treasuries vs. the S&P 500. But hey, at least you got your 4% 🫠 Source: Ian McMillan, CMT @the_chart_life
Article by FT ▶️ Investors pile into tokenised Treasury funds.
Stablecoin issuers and traders are attracted by yields on offer and potential use as collateral in some derivatives transactions. 🔴 Crypto companies and traders are pouring billions of dollars into tokenised versions of money market and Treasury bond mutual funds, as they look beyond stablecoins to other places to park excess cash that can also give them some yield. 🔴Total assets held in tokenised Treasury products — which include funds whose units have been converted into digital tokens as well as some tokenised US government bonds — have jumped 80 per cent so far this year to $7.4bn, according to data group RWA.xyz. 🔴Funds run by BlackRock, Franklin Templeton and Janus Henderson have grown particularly rapidly, with combined assets tripling. Inflows have been driven in part by crypto traders, many of whom are finding tokenised funds a more attractive place than stablecoins to park their money. Some investors are also starting to use these funds as an easy-to-trade form of collateral in crypto derivatives transactions. https://lnkd.in/e25ZwDG5
European stocks are trading at a wider-than-usual discount vs their US counterparts, per Goldman
Source: Markets & Mayhem on X
BREAKING: U.S. Dollar
U.S. dollar Index $DXY is now trading below its 200 Day Moving Average by the largest margin in 21 years. Source: Bloomberg
The SP500 has traded above its upper Bollinger Band for the past 8 days.
The last time it did that was in July 2024 and then $SPY promptly corrected by 10%. Source: Barchart
Handy tariff "state of play" sheet from BBG.
Source: Neil Sethi @neilksethi
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