US 10-year treasury yields are trading back above 4% and this most likely due to a batch of strong US hard data. Indeed, the US economy remains "red hot":
1) Initial jobless claims were expected to rise modestly last week - after hitting 2-moth lows the prior week - but instead they tumbled further to 221k (the lowest since Feb 2023) - TOP LEFT CHART 2) Continuing Claims also dropped to 1.69mm Americans - the first time back below 1.7mm since Jan 2023... - TOP RIGHT CHART 3) US GDP Grew An Unexpectedly Hot 2.4% In Q2 Despite Fed's Aggressive Tightening Campaign - BOTTOM LEFT CHART 4) Orders for Durable Goods printed a 4.7% MoM surge (almost 4x the expected 1.3% rise) - that is the biggest monthly rise in durable goods orders since July 2020 - BOTTOM RIGHT CHART Can the #fed really afford to put an end to their #interestrates hike cycle? Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge
Margin & options are fun on the way up but BRUTAL on the way down. Warren Buffett said it best:
Source: Brian Feroldi
The power of loyalty
Source: Compounding Quality
ECB raised rates by 25bps as expected
Deposit rate to 3.75pct, higher since April 2001. The main refinancing rate is now 4.25pct, highest since 2008. It is the 9th consecutive hike in a cycle that started exactly one year ago. APP portfolio is declining at a measure and predictable pace. Balance sheet should thus continue to shrink By stating that inflation Is coming down but is staying above target for an extended period means that the ECB keeps the door open to further rate hiles. A slight tweak in the statement: the ECB interest Rates will be SET at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary … (instead of BROUGHT at sufficiently…) NEW: the ECB decided that going forward, the minimum reserves banks need to hold won‘t receive any interest. In this way, the ECB could prevent the losses of the ECB and the national central banks from increasing too much. Bank shares like DB drop following the News Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ, www.zerohedge.com
Inspiring quote from Jeff Bezos
Changing your mind is hard. Admitting you're wrong is hard. But as Jeff Bezos said: (source: Brian Feroldi)
U.S. earnings Revisions Index from Citi has been in negative territory for past six weeks …
Longest streak since beginning of this year. Source: Bloomberg, Liz Ann Sonders
Inspirational quote from Bruce Lee
Source: European Leadership
Forward S&P 500 Performance by VIX Decile
While a low VIX indicates that investors are complacent and signal that unexpected negative events could push the VIX upwards (and thus equity markets downward), a low VIX reading isn’t necessarily something to fear. As shown on this chart courtesy of Todd Sohn, it is a typical characteristic of bull markets. Source: J-C Parets