GDP growth does not always correlate with earnings and equities performance
Source: Michel A.Arouet
BofA: With the S&P 500 up ~50% over the last two years, history suggests more modest index gains going forward.
Returns were most frequently in the 0-10% range following periods where the index was up 40-50% over a two-year period Source: Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT, MBA
US equities: elevated P/E and high growth expectations.
Better for earnings to deliver in order to keep the PEG at reasonable level Source: Morgan Stanley Research
The Russell 2000 $IWM hit new ALL TIME HIGHS today for the first time in 3 years
Source: Evan
Strong seasonal pattern kicking off today through the second trading day of the New Year…
Source: Bloomberg
SPDR ETFs and their YTD Performance
🥇 Financials $XLF +44.28% 🥈 Communication Services $XLC +37.19% 🥉 Gold Trust $GLD +34.37% Source: Trend Spider
The giants of the U.S. economy are absolute cash machines.
Here’s their TTM (trailing-twelve-months) net income (and Y/Y growth): $AAPL: $94B (-3%) $NVDA: $63B (+234%) $MSFT: $91B (+17%) $AMZN: $50B (+148%) $GOOG: $94B (+41%) $META: $56B (+87%) $TSLA: $13B (+18%) $BRK.A: $107B (+39%)* $TSM: $33B (+16%) $AVGO: $5B (-63%) *Note: Berkshire's net income includes unrealized gains from its massive investment portfolio. These 10 alone earned $606B this year. Will they continue to grow their profit at similar rates moving forward?
How will this end?
Source: Jim Bianco
