The end of ice age... Will we come back one day to a world of negative yielding debt???
Below chart shows the USD Market Value of negative yielding debt. It peaked above $18T after Covid... Source: Bloomberg
According to Nikkei, Japans Norinchukin Bank:
Japan's 5th largest bank with $840 billion in assets - will sell more than 10 trillion yen ($63 billion) of its holdings of U.S. and European government bonds during the year ending March 2025 "as it aims to stem its losses from bets on low-yield foreign bonds, a main cause of its deteriorating balance sheet, and lower the risks associated with holding foreign government bonds."
US 10 year yield breaks <4.3% on PPI.
The producer price index unexpectedly declined the most in 7mths, adding to evidence that inflationary pressures are moderating. The odds of a Fed rate cut in Sep shot up to 65% following PPI reading. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
France 10y risk spread over Germany keeps rising. Jumps to 62bps.
Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
France's 10-Year Borrowing Costs Surge Against European Benchmarks!
The gap between the 10-year French government bond yield and the 10-year EUR Swap rate, a key benchmark for borrowing costs in Europe, has significantly widened since the recent European elections in France The trend was already "en marche" since S&P recently downgraded France’s credit rating from AA to AA-, following a similar downgrade by Fitch last year. Moody’s has also indicated that the current situation might lead to another downgrade. While other countries like Ireland and Spain have seen their financial health improve, France seems to be facing more challenges. Political uncertainty and reliance on international investors might cause money to leave France, pushing borrowing costs even higher. Higher interest rates on French bonds mean that investors want bigger returns because they see more risk in lending money to France. Japanese investors, who own a lot of French bonds, might start investing more in their own country due to rising interest rates there, reducing demand for French bonds. Additionally, some hedge funds are betting against European government bonds, showing a lack of confidence in the stability of European economies, including France. This trend underscores the growing concerns about France’s economic and political stability in the broader European context. Source: Bloomberg
France’s bond yield hit the highest level this year on snap election.
10 year French bond yield climbs 11bps to 3.21%. Risk spread over Germany rose to 54bps, highest since January. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Japan owns $1.2 trillion of US Treasuries.
As Japanese yields rise, the domestic market will attract dollars away from US debt. "Rising long-term interest rates in Japan put upward pressure on long-term US Treasury yields:" Apollo's Torsten Slok Source: Bloomberg, Lisa Abramowitz
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway owns 3% of the entire Treasury Bill market according to JP Morgan
Source: Barchart
