US real average hourly earnings turn positive again
US wages outpaced inflation on a YoY basis in May by 0.2%, ending the ignominious streak of 25 consecutive months of negative real wage growth. Source: Charlie Bilello
UK inflation stays stuck at 8.7% while economists had expected a decline to 8.4%.
Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Switzerland’s new inflation forecast supports another SNB hike
The government expects inflation to be above the central bank’s target this year which reinforces a likely interest-rate hike next week. The SECO said consumer prices will rise 2.3% this year. That down from 2022’s 2.8%, and also slightly lower than a March prediction of 2.4%.
Source: Bloomberg, SECO
US CPI continues to cool down
Overall US CPI moved down to 4.0% in May, the 11th consecutive decline in the YoY rate of inflation and the lowest level since March 2021. US Core CPI (ex-Food/Energy) moved down to 5.3% YoY, the lowest reading since November 2021. Source: Charlie Bilello
Is it time to increase duration in EUR bonds?
The latest European Commission survey on Eurozone selling price expectations shows a significant decline, suggesting that inflation should continue to decrease in the coming months, alleviating pressure on the ECB to tighten its monetary policy. After a possible one or two final tightening moves by the ECB in June and/or July, is it worth considering a higher allocation to European rates, particularly core bonds? Source : Bloomberg.
Lumber futures are at their lowest levels since May 2020, down 81% from the peak in May 2021
Source: Charlie Bilello
US MAY EMPIRE STATE FACTORY INDEX FALLS TO -31.8 (lowest since Jan.2023), EST. -3.9
The orders index also slid by the most since April 2020, hitting the lowest level since the start of the year. The shipments gauge plummeted more than 40 points. Source: Bloomberg
The U.S. government's interest expense is now an annualized $928.9 billion
Source: Jeff Weniger
