The UK has been lagging other developed economies
Souce: Bloomberg
More evidence of a decline in the US Inflation Rate...
The PCE Price Index moved down to 5%, its lowest level since September 2021. Peak was 7% in June 2022. Source: Charlie Bilello
Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon...
This chart highlights that #inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. Eurozone M3 growth slows to 4.1% in Dec from 4.8% in Nov. Lower money supply growth will bring inflation down further. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
US economy expanded at 2.9% annual pace in Q4 2022
US economy expanded at 2.9% annual pace from Oct-Dec, ending 2022 with momentum despite pressure of high interest rates & widespread fears of a looming recession. It nevertheless decelerated from Q3 3.2% annual growth rate. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
US wage growth: mind the the gap...
US workers who switched jobs received pay increases of 7.7% over the last year vs. 5.5% for those who stayed at their jobs. With data going back to 1997, this is the widest gap we've ever seen. Source: Charlie Bilello
Eurozone business activity back to growth
The start of 2023 saw Eurozone business activity show a tentative return to growth after six successive months of decline. But better growth in Jan came with rates of inflation edging higher in both manufacturing and services. Source: Jeffrey Kleintop, S&P Global
More companies are mentioning ''job cuts'' in the US
More companies are mentioning ''job cuts'' in the US. Still a limited amount, but now approaching 2019 levels. These figures would be consistent with 100k Non-Farm Payrolls ahead. The labor market is weakening, and if it doesn't the Fed will push until it does. Source: MacroAlf
US, China and EU GDP over time
Source: Bloomberg
