Are Mag7 stocks in a bubble?
No doubt, in some ways they are really pricey BUT as shown by this work from Sonus Varghese on this important question, fundamentals justify to some extent their dominance. Since 2021, NVDA stock is up 130%, yet earnings are up 231%. And other Mag 7 names are similar... Source: Carson, Ryan Detrick
The Magnificent 7 is becoming the Magnificent 4
Source: Beth Kindig
If history is any indication, and if we are in a tech bubble, then we still have room left to run, according to Bank of America
source : BofA, barchart
Magnificent 7 profits now exceed almost every country in the world
The so-called “Magnificent 7” now wields greater financial might than almost every other major country in the world, according to new Deutsche Bank research. The meteoric rise in the profits and market capitalizations of the Magnificent 7 U.S. tech behemoths - Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla — outstrip those of all listed companies in almost every G20 country, the bank said in a research note Tuesday. Of the non-U.S. G20 countries, only China and Japan (and the latter, only just) have greater profits when their listed companies are combined. source : cnbc
Visually comparing the market caps, revenues, and operating incomes of the so-called "Mag 7".
Looking at these numbers, what stands out to you the most? Source: Quartr
Since February 2023:
1. Magnificent 7: +77% 2. S&P 500: +20% 3. Russel 2000: +5% 4. S&P 500 Equal Weight: +4% If you remove the Magnificent 7 from the S&P 500, the index is barely up 5% over the last year. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
The Magnificent Seven now have a higher market cap than the entire stock markets of Japan, France, the United Kingdom and Mexico COMBINED!
source : barchart
Lots of talk about a bubble in AI/Mag 7...
At this point, valuations at the top are no where near as frothy as they were at the height of the Dot Com Bubble. The 5 largest stocks traded at 43x Fwd PE in March ‘00, a 59% premium to the Mag 7’s current multiple of 27x. Source: David Marlin, Goldman Sachs
