The current US small caps rally seems to be mainly driven near-record exuberance in Russell 2000 ETF $IWM call options activity
(chart on the right) rather than inflows into small caps funds (chart on the left). Source: BofA, UBS
BREAKING >>>> Kamala Harris starts the race down 9 Points, even worse than Biden
A national survey released yesterday (22/7) by HarrisX and Forbes Breaking News shows former President Donald J. Trump more than doubling his lead over both President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris in the aftermath of the Republican National Convention (RNC). The poll, taken before Biden officially dropped out of the race, indicates Trump leading Biden among registered voters 48%-40%, up from 45%-42% prior to RNC, and leading Harris 50% to 41%. Among likely November voters, Trump’s lead increases to double digits: 49%-39% against Biden, with 12% undecided and 51%-40% against Harris, with 9% as undecided voters. The poll, which was conducted July 19-21, 2024 with 2,753 registered voters, also shows that voters expect Trump to win in November. Nearly two in three (65%) expected him to win against Biden and nearly as many (63%) say he would win against Harris. “Kamala Harris starts her 2024 battle behind Trump, who is enjoying a strong post-convention bump and leads her by almost digits in our polling,” commented Dritan Nesho, CEO and chief pollster at HarrisX, on the findings. “If the polls don’t start to close and show better traction for her, Biden’s decision to step aside for Harris may be a case of ‘too similar, too late.’ That said, Vice President Harris alleviates concerns among the democratic base and is better able to sway undecided independents and suburban women, showing some promise.” Source: HarrisX/Forbes
A "palace coup"?
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Will the Presidential race be a tighter one than currently predicted?
Watch out
Forward P/E Ratios of Key Global Stock Markets - Clad Bastion research on X
India: 24 Denmark: 23 United States: 21 Taiwan: 18 Switzerland: 17 Netherlands: 17 Australia: 17 Saudi Arabia: 16 Sweden: 16 Japan: 15 Canada: 14 France: 14 Germany: 12 Mexico: 12 United Kingdom: 12 Spain: 11 South Korea: 10 Hong Kong: 10 South Africa: 9 Italy: 9 Brazil: 7 China: 6 Turkey: 5
The US remains (by far) the world leader for corporate R&D, accounting for ~40% of global total
• China and EU are competing for second place in global league table • Japan has been in free fall over past two decades, now accounting for only 10% of global private R&D Source: Agathe Demarais
The US labor market continues to weaken.
US job postings on indeed.com declined 12.4% year-over-year to their lowest level since April 2021. Overall, US job postings are down by ~50% since their December 2021 record. However, nationwide job postings are still 11.7% above their pre-pandemic baseline, according to Indeed. Meanwhile, US job openings unexpectedly increased in May to 8.14 million from 7.92 million in April, according to the latest BLS data. Data provided by Indeed is more current than the BLS-provided series, which suggests a further decline in US job openings is coming. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Indeed.com
Headlines in Europe.
Source: Eagle Wings
