Germany has significantly lagged behind the US in economic growth over the past 30yrs
Since 1980, the US econ has expanded tenfold, while Germany's has only grown fivefold. This disparity is partly due to faster population growth in the US. However, the underperformance since the 1990s is no accident. The US has capitalized on digitalization far more effectively, driving economic gains, whereas Germany has been slower to embrace technological transformation. A clear example of this is Volkswagen, which highlights Germany's cautious approach to modernization. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Apollo: "This is a soft landing"
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Ahead of today's Non-Farm-Payrolls print, Atlanta Fed GDPNow is forecasting just 2.1% US GDP growth for Q3
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BREAKING: August private payrolls in the US rose by 99,000, well below expectations of 144,000.
This marks the smallest gain since 2021. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, ADP
Increase in CapEx spending over the last year...
-Google $GOOGL: +91% -Amazon $AMZN: +55% -Microsoft $MSFT: +54% -Meta $META: +33% Source: Charlie Bilello
Is the VIX preparing for another pop?
$VIX During an election year, it is the norm for volatility to pick up in September. Source: Trend Spider
US ELECTION UPDATE >>> Donald Trump is now leading Kamala Harris by 5 percentage points in 2024 election odds, according to Polymarket's prediction markets.
Just one month ago, Harris was leading Trump by 10 percentage points on the same platform. The election is 2 months out. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Yesterday's rout is right on schedule: in presidential election years, markets peak right around Labor Day then trap door all the way until the election.
September and October tend to be weak in election years. This doesn't mean the world will fall apart, but just be aware the calendar over the next 8 weeks isn't doing anyone any favours. "Plans are useless, but planning is everything." Eisenhower Source: Goldman Sachs, www.zerohedge.com, Ryan Detrick
