Consumer balance sheets are getting stretched
Accumulating debt during a low interest rates environment is one thing. But in light of the continuous surge of the price of money, the US consumer is probably starting to feel the pain Source: Crescat Capital, Bloomberg
The gap between oil and 10 year breakevens is huge...
Does it mean that the market sees higher oil prices as a "growth killer" and thus disinflationary at some stage? Source chart: TME, Refinitiv
“Soft Landing” is still the consensus. But consensus doesn’t have a good track record...
Source: Game of Tardes
Sentiment among consumers in Germany keeps deteriorating as persistently high inflation encourages people to save & blots out chances of a recovery before year-end
GfK German Consumer Sentiment Index drops to -26.5 in Oct from -25.6 in Sep. An indicator BELOW 0 signals YoY contraction in private consumption. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Zero Day Options (0DTE) now account for half of total SP500 options volume
Source: Barchart
First time in 2023 that ElectionBettingOdds has had Trump in the lead
Source: Bespoke
Flows are still not coming into publicly-listed bitcoin funds (including etfs)
Source: JPM, TME
This chart tells the story:
The rate priced in for the Fed’s December 2024 meeting hit a new high for this cycle at 4.7%, meaning investors have sharply trimmed their hopes of interest rate cuts in 2024. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
