Syz the moment

This would be the first time it will have done so in 14 years ... Apple will ship around 243M iPhone units this year vs 235M shipments from Samsung. Bloomberg reported that Counterpoint Research expects Apple to become the No. 1 brand by shipments this year with a 19.4% market share. The report says Samsung’s Galaxy line will grow only 4.6% this year, while iPhone sales are likely to increase by 10% compared to last year.

Yes, Google just leap-frogged nearly everyone. According to Bloomberg’s latest rankings, here’s the current Top 10 richest people in the world: 1️⃣ Elon Musk — $442B 2️⃣ Larry Page — $276B 3️⃣ Sergey Brin — $258B 4️⃣ Larry Ellison — $254B 5️⃣ Jeff Bezos — $251B 6️⃣ Mark Zuckerberg — $225B 7️⃣ Bernard Arnault — $196B 8️⃣ Steve Ballmer — $166B 9️⃣ Michael Dell — $155B 🔟 Jensen Huang — $155B The Google founders jumping to #2 and #3 is a reminder of one thing: AI isn’t just reshaping technology, it’s reshaping the leaderboard of global wealth in real time. Source: Evan

📉 Weekly jobless claims fell by 6,000 to 216,000, beating expectations of 225,000. 👉 Translation: fewer people filed for unemployment last week. Layoffs remain relatively low. But here’s the twist: 📈 Continuing unemployment claims rose by 7,000 to 1.96 million. 👉 That means more people are staying on unemployment longer. What does this combo really signal? While companies may not be cutting large numbers of workers, the economy doesn’t seem to be creating enough new jobs to absorb people who are already unemployed. In short: 🔹 Layoffs are low. 🔹 Hiring isn’t high enough. 🔹 Workers are getting stuck in unemployment longer. A cooling job market… or the calm before a bigger shift? Source: Truflation, Bianco Research

Source: Matt Cerminaro @mattcerminaro

Source: Sam Callahan @samcallah FT

Source: Bloomberg, zerohedge

As reported by Reuters, UBS has aggressively updated its projections. The bank raised March forecasts by $750 and mid-year targets by $1,000, predicting prices will climb to a new high of $13,000 by Dec 2026. The Catalysts: ⚡ Demand: Powered by AI data centers & EVs. ⛏️ Supply: "Persistent mine disruptions" widening the gap. Source: Mining Visuals on X https:// miningvisuals.com

The Commitments: $250B in cloud compute from Microsoft $38B from Amazon 36 gigawatts of contracted capacity All tied to a total deal value up to $1.8 trillion HSBC’s estimate: OpenAI will owe ~$620B per year in data-center rent once everything ramps… and only a third of that capacity is online by 2030. 🔢 The Math (and the Problem) By 2030: Cumulative rental costs: $792B (→ $1.4T by 2033) Projected free cash flow: $282B Cash from Nvidia/AMD: $26B Undrawn debt: $24B Liquidity: $17.5B Even after stacking every possible dollar, there’s still a $207B hole — plus the $10B safety buffer HSBC thinks they need. 💥 And here's where it gets tricky 👇 HSBC’s model already assumes everything goes right: 3B OpenAI users by 2030 (44% of all adults outside China) Paid conversion rising from 5% → 10% 2% share of global digital ads $386B in annual enterprise AI revenue Even under that fantasy scenario, OpenAI still can’t pay the bills. HSBC’s suggested “solution”? OpenAI may need to walk away from its data-center commitments and hope Microsoft/Amazon “show flexibility.” Translation: The economics don’t work — unless everyone politely pretends the contracts aren’t real. And yet this is the company anchoring a $500B Stargate project and driving hundreds of billions in AI infrastructure spending. If this is what the best case looks like… imagine the base case. My take: be very careful with AI plays which are asset-heavy. They might disappoint in terms of shareholders' returns in the years to come. Do you remember the Telecom bubble? The long-term winners have been the asset-light companies. The asset heavy companies never recover. Source: Hedgie on X, FT