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US tariff revenues hit a new record in June, reaching $26.6bn – up from $22.2bn in May.
Since the fiscal year began in Nov, total customs revenue has climbed to $108bn, w/most of it collected in recent months as Trump’s tariffs take effect. Source: HolgerZ, Yahoo Finance
Wide dispersion among the Mag 7 so far this year
-Nvidia/Meta/Microsoft outperforming -Amazon/Google/Apple/Tesla underperforming Big shift from the previous few years when they all moved in tandem. Source: Charlie Bilello
Treasury Rate Volatility $MOVE falls to lowest level since January 2022
Source: Barchart
The odds of a Fed rate cut by September have fallen to just 60%. A few weeks ago, the odds were 94%
Source: Barchart
Our Global M2 proxy continues to point to supportive liquidity dynamics for risk assets in the weeks ahead, even if the charts suggest a potential pause in the upward trend for the short-run.
➡️ Liquidity continues to be injected, not only in the US (with M2 reaching a new all-time high in May), but also in Europe and China, and the USD weakness is supportive of global liquidity conditions. ➡️ The link between our Global M2 proxy and the Bitcoin, but also the S&P500 and the MSCI World, continues to hold quite well! This is NOT an investment recommendation. Many factors influence the price of assets. Do your own research. Source: Adrien Pichoud
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