US CPI has moved down from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022 to 3.2% today. What's driving that decline?
Lower rates of inflation in Fuel Oil, Gasoline, Gas Utilities, Used Cars, Medical Care, Electricity, Apparel, New Cars, Food at Home, and Food away from Home. Shelter and Transportation are the only major components that have a higher inflation rate than June 2022. Source: Charlie Bilello
US inflation a tad lower than what economists expected: US July CPI accelerates to 3.2% YoY from 3% in June vs 3.3% expected, BUT the first acceleration after 12 consecutive months of decline
Both Goods and Services inflation (YoY) slowed in July - but Services remain extremely high at +6.1%... Core CPI slows to 4.7% YoY from 4.8% in June as expected. Shelter costs contributed to about 90% of the increase in July CPI. Note that #Fed's favorite inflation indicator - Core Services CPI Ex-Shelter - remains sticky' as it reaccelerated in July (+0.2% MoM, and from +3.9% to +4.0% YoY)... Fed Swaps price in lower odds (20%) of another rate hike this year. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ, www.zerohedge.com
The $105 Trillion World Economy in One Chart
Source: Visual Capitalist
Rice prices soared to the highest in almost 15 years in Asia on mounting concerns over global supplies as dry weather threatens production in Thailand and after top shipper India banned some exports
Concerns over the potential impacts of El Nino on production in some suppliers provided further underpinning to prices, as did rain-induced interruptions and quality variability in Vietnam’s ongoing summer-autumn harvest,” a FAO report stated. India, the world’s leading rice exporter, banned exports of non-basmati white rice on Jul. 20, as the government seeks to keep a cap on soaring food prices at home, and ensure there are enough supplies domestically “at reasonable prices.” Source: Bloomberg. CNBC
In a stunning move, reminiscent of the first few months of Putin's invasion of Ukraine, European NatGas prices exploded a stunning 40% higher YESTERDAY ALONE
This comes as the possibility of worker strikes at some LNG plants in Australia threatens global supply..... This is the biggest daily increase since March 2022. Citigroup estimates EU natural gas prices could double. Meanwhile, oil hit 9 months high and coal is rising as well. The surge of energy prices will make the job of central-bankers more difficult. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, ICE, Bloomberg
"Magnificent 7" stocks valuations are NOT cheap. Example: Apple
Apple's P/E Ratio: 30x 10-year average: 20x Apple's EV/EBITDA Ratio: 23x 10-year average: 14x Apple's Price to Sales Ratio: 7.5x 10-year average: 4.6x $AAPL Source: Charlie Bilello
The cost of both buying and renting a house in America has skyrocketed since 2020
Buying a house now costs $2,700/month on average, up an alarming ~86% in 3 years. Renting a house now costs $1,850/month on average, also up ~25% in 3 years. Owning a home has become a luxury. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Energy continues performing very well. The $XLE (energy stocks etf) is breaking above big levels, and the 50 day is crossing the 100 day...while the crowd gave up on energy longs at recent lows
Source: TME
