On average, bubbles rise 217% during the 3 years leading up to the peak according to data from Morgan Stanley
Megacap Tech stocks are already up 200% year-to-date. Source: Barchart
What not to do is more important than what to do in the stock market What not to do?
🔷 Don't pay too much. 🔷 Don't go for businesses that are prone to obsolescence and destruction. 🔷 Don't invest with crooks and idiots. 🔷 Don't invest in things you don't understand Source: Investment Books (Dhaval)
Market cap of listed domestic companies as a % of GDP for selected countries
Switzerland is way ahead of peers in the ranking. US comes next Source: HolgerZ
The U.S. Now Has:
1. Record $17.1 trillion in household debt 2. Record $12.0 trillion in mortgages 3. Record $1.6 trillion in auto loans 4. Record $1.6 trillion in student loans 5. Record $1.0 trillion in credit card debt Total mortgage debt is now more than double the 2006 peak. Meanwhile, 36% of Americans have more credit card debt than savings while student loan payments are set to resume for the first time since 2020. This is all while mortgage rates just hit 7.1% and credit card debt rates hit a record 25%. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Hedgeye
Property values in commercial real estate are beyond bear market territory
- Office buildings are down nearly 30% over the last year ALONE. - Apartments down 15% and underperforming malls. - Hotels are flat as markets await a potential drop in consumers spending. - Real estate markets are feeling the effects of higher interest rates. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Bloomberg
SP500 seasonality and 4-year cycle analysis suggests a consolidation before a year-end rally
Source: Nautilus Research
Cloud Infrastructure Services Market
$65 billion in spending in Q2 2023. → +18% Y/Y and +3% Q/Q. Market share: 🟧 $AMZN AWS 32%. 🟦 $MSFT Azure 22%. 🟩 $GOOG GCP 11%. Big 3 = 65% of the market. Estimates by Synergy Research Group. Source: App Economy Insight
WeWork bonds yield almost 90%
When they mature in 2025, what will #wework do? Borrow again or sell its assets? tThere doesn't seem to be any 'soft landing' for US office space... Source: Joe Consorti, Bloomberg
