Syz the moment

•🚨 CDU leader Friedrich Merz has emerged as the winner of a turbulent federal election. The CDU/CSU secured just 28.6% of the vote—its second-worst result in history. The SPD, expected to be the next coalition partner, collapsed to 16.4%, marking its weakest performance since World War II. Meanwhile, the far-right AfD doubled its support to 20.8%, and the Left Party also saw a significant surge, reaching 8.8%. 👉 The FDP and BSW failed to clear the 5% threshold and will NOT be represented in the Bundestag. W/just 45% of the vote, a CDU/CSU-SPD coalition is possible, avoiding the need to include the Greens, who dropped to 11.6%. 👉However, fringe parties now hold a blocking minority, making constitutional changes—such as setting up an off-budget defense or infrastructure fund or reforming the debt brake—dependent on concessions to them or impossible altogether.

(h/t @zerohedge)

Right into PCE week… Interesting. $TLT Source: Trend Spider

Bloomberg, C.Barraud

What does this mean for the new coalition government (most likely between CDU/CSU and SPD). Here is a handy primer from Deutsche Bank. Source: zerohedge, DB

Mom-and-pop investors flows into technology stocks have more than DOUBLED in just a few weeks. Institutional investors selling to retail as they chase stocks at record valuations. Meanwhile, individual investors have UNDERperformed the market for 3 years in a row. Source: Global Markets Investor, Goldman Sachs

First Tesla Inc. surged. Then SpaceX became the world’s most valuable tech startup and xAI nearly doubled its valuation before looking to do it again. Now, X is looking to join Elon Musk’s other companies in leveraging the billionaire’s unprecedented political power. If the social-media company succeeds in its quest to raise money from investors at a $44 billion valuation, it will lift the cloud that has hung over it since Musk paid that much for it in 2022. It would also boost his wealth by about $20 billion, another lift for the world’s richest person. His companies have gained a combined $613 billion in value since the election assuming anticipated funding rounds go as planned, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Even after retreating from an all-time high in December, Tesla is still worth nearly $400 billion more than it was the day before the election. Meanwhile, a flurry of new funding rounds for Musk’s private companies, including X, SpaceX and xAI, will add over $220 billion in combined value if investments in X and xAI close at the reported size. Musk’s net worth — $397.1 billion as of Tuesday’s close — is up more than 50% since the election, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. If all the funding rounds close as planned, he’d be worth over $420 billion.

Source : bloomberg