In case you missed it...
Goods deflation in the US is the biggest in 20 years... Source: www.zerohedge.com
🚨 THIS IS ONE OF THE MOST EXPENSIVE MARKETS IN HISTORY 🚨
valuation remains a headwind for US equities (out of the 5 pillars of our investment process, valuation is the only negative one) . S&P 500 is expensive on 19 out of 20 metrics according to the Bank of America analysis. Some metrics are over 100% above historical averages. Shiller P/E and S&P 500 Market Cap to GDP are now 101% and 147% above averages. Source: Global Markets Investor, Facset, Bloomberg, BofA
Semiconductors index: Was it a "head & shoulders top" (going to bring down the entire stock market)?
Or is it just a correction in a bull market??? Source: J-C Parets
All it took was 5 words... Nvidia's Huang says "demand for chips is great", sparking huge rally in $NVDA and the S&P...
NVIDIA CLOSED THE DAY UP 8%. NVDIA ADDED $220 BILLION DOLLARS TODAY FOR CONTEXT INTEL IS WORTH JUST $80 BILLION NOW THAT MEANS NVIDIA ADDED ALMOST 3 INTELS JUST TODAY 🤯 Source: www.zerohedge.com, GURGAVIN
Are rate cuts necessarily bullish for stocks?
Not if they're associated with an economic downturn and earnings decline. E.g 2007-2008 Source: Charlie Bilello
Net long positions on the Japanese yen hit ~45,000 last week, the highest level in 3.5 years.
By comparison, in early August, speculative positions reached net short ~180,000 contracts, the most in at least 20 years. The las time such a sharp reversal from short to long occurred was during the 2008 Financial Crisis. This comes after the Japanese Yen has strengthened against the US dollar by 12% since July as the carry trade has scaled back. The $USDJPY pair is flat year-to-date and is trading at its lowest level since the first week of January. Japanese Yen volatility is still here. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
⚠️US BANKS UNREALIZED LOSSES HIT $512.9 BILLION IN Q2 2024⚠️
Q2 marks the 11th STRAIGHT quarter of unrealized losses on investment securities for banks, a streak never seen before. The number of banks on the FDIC Problem Bank List increased to 66 and represents 1.5% of total. Source: Global Markets Investor
Fed Expected to Cut Rates by 25 Basis Points After Inflation Data; Bitcoin Remains Stable
U.S. inflation came in as expected, increasing the likelihood of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut, with market expectations rising to 83%. A 50 basis point cut is now only 17% likely. The bond market now expects a 25 bps Fed rate cut this month, not 50 bps. The 2-year yield hit 3.69%, and the hashtag#Fed's held rates at 5.25%-5.5% since July 2023. Investors eye 140 bps in cuts by Jan '25. Source: Luc Sternberg, coinoptix, Bloomberg
