The 10 year bond yield soared on Monday, closing i on 4.2%.
The rise in bond yields took stocks down with them. Has the Fed lost control of the bond market? Was the Fed jumbo rate cut a policy mistake?
Gold is now 44% above its 2011 peak, while silver remains nearly 30% below its level from the same period.
Source: Crescat Capital, Blomberg, Tavi Costa
Druckenmiller is shorting U.S. Treasuries with a record setting 20% of his portfolio.
He knows what's about to happen ("Interest rates could double from here.") Source: Financelot @FinanceLancelot on X
The race to $4 trillion market-cap is ON. 🏁
Which company do you think will be the first to hit this historic milestone? $AAPL $NVDA $MSFT Source: Trend Spider
The co-founder of the world’s largest asset manager has said the outcome of the looming US election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump 'really doesn’t matter' for financial markets.
https://lnkd.in/eZCKpyDZ Source: FT
Tuesday humour
Source: Wall Street Silver
A fascinating chart by James Bianco ->
The 10-year yield (blue) and Trump's Political Betting probabilities (orange). The chart starts the day Biden dropped out. Coincidence, or are these series related? If they are related, what happens to 10-year yields if the orange line (man) goes to 100 in 14 days? Source: Bianco Research
What could be the tax effects on SP500 EPS based on a Trump or Harris win? Here's what BofA projects:
- They said a Harris administration would be a 4.7% headwind to overall S&P EPS growth and a Trump administration would be a 4% tailwind to S&P earnings. - The only caveat here is if we have a split congress. If so, Kamala may win but not be able to pass sweeping tax policies. Given current market action, it seems the market is currently pricing in those 2 scenarios: 1) Either Trump wins 2) or if Kamala does, she can’t pass her new tax policies because of a divided congress. Source: amit @amitisinvesting on X, BofA
