Latest US jobs numbers show economic momentum keeps cooling: Non-farm-payrolls rose by 206k jobs in June, ahead of 190k forecast.
However, 2 months net revisions were NEGATIVE with -110k. Moreover, government employment rose by a whopping 70k while PRIVATE employment with 136k was below estimates. Unemployment rate rose to 4.1% from 4.0% due to higher labor participation rate. Wage rose 3.9% YoY in line w/estimates. Bottom-line: these numbers seem to confirm our thesis that the US job market is NORMALIZING hence reinforcing the disinflation trend which will ultimately enable policy makers to NORMALIZE. More to come from our Chief Economist Adrien Pichoud... stay tuned... Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Only 22% S&P500 stocks are outperforming the S&P500 index this year
Source: Grant Hawkridge
How does an airline make money with a full 10 hour flight?
Source: https://buff.ly/4eGrIwp
Deindustrialization continues unabated in Germany.
Industrial production fell by 2.5% in May to a level last seen in 2010 - except for covid –, meaning industrial activity is unlikely to contribute to GDP growth in Q2. The consensus forecast was for a 0.1% increase in May. Production in industry, excluding energy & construction, dropped 2.9%, mainly driven by lower activity at car & machinery producers. Construction output decreased 3.3%, while energy production increased 2.6%. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
The sp500 ended the day at another all-time high, its 33rd of the year.
$SPX Source: Charlie Bilello
JUST IN: On-chain data confirms this is the second-largest liquidation event in Bitcoin's entire history, right after the FTX collapse in November 2022.
This comes amidst news that Germany is selling $3.5B worth of seized $BTC, and Mt. Gox begins paying back $8.5B to creditors, with the majority expected to be sold. Source: WhaleWire on X
Britain wakes up to a new party in power after 14 years of Conservative rule.
Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour party is headed for a huge majority in the House of Commons after Rishi Sunak conceded defeat in the UK general election. With the final results still streaming in, a national exit poll suggests Starmer will become prime minister more than 400 of 650 Commons seats, with the Tories holding most likely around 110 seats, the party’s worst result in its 190-year history. Sunak, who won his seat of Richmond and Northallerton, said he took “responsibility for the loss”. A victorious Starmer had earlier declared: “The change begins right here. It’s now time for us to deliver.” Source: FT, Bloomberg
French stocks are more than 4% away from reclaiming the losses they have suffered since the election was called last month.
Meanwhile, French bonds already have been lifted by the political maneuvering that seeks to block Marine Le Pen’s National Rally from winning an absolute majority in the National Assembly. The Franco-German 10yr spread has came down by -5bps to 67bps and has been tightening for 5 .consecutive day. This takes the spread down its tightest level in three weeks. Emmanuel Macron’s centrist group and a left-wing alliance opposed to Le Pen strategically pulled 223 candidates out of constituencies in an effort to avoid splitting opposition to the far right and lessen its chances of winning enough seats to form a government. That means no party is likely to win the 289 seats needed for a majority, the Morgan Stanley team said. Source: David Simon Elkoubi, Morgan Stanley
