US Wholesale Inflation Surges in December
US wholesale inflation rose sharply in December as the producer price index (PPI) jumped 0.5% month-over-month, exceeding expectations, driven by higher service costs. Core PPI also accelerated, climbing 0.8% MoM and 3.6% YoY, well above forecasts. The surge pressures corporate margins, especially for companies lacking pricing power, and may influence inventory cycles and earnings revisions. Market reactions, particularly in bonds and high-multiple equities, often precede headline recognition, highlighting the importance of liquidity signals. Source: Bloomberg TV @BloombergTV
bitcoin 8% surge yesterday is the second biggest daily gain since March 2025...
Source: zerohedge. Bloomberg
UBS Warns of Cascading Defaults
UBS projects private credit defaults could surge to ~15%, driven by AI disruption in leveraged tech and services. High leverage, weak covenants, and concentrated exposure—especially in software—raise the risk of cascading defaults. Contagion could spread to public credit, widening spreads and threatening liquidity, while banks and insurers’ large exposure increases systemic risk. The private credit market isn’t in crisis yet, but all conditions for a severe credit cycle are present. Source: zerohedge
Credit crunch default rates ?
FT: “.. Holy moly. These are big global financial crisis-like — or at least dotcom-bust-like — numbers. While we haven’t spotted a time horizon for the forecast, we’ve whacked them onto this chart of historic default rates to give you a sense ..” Source: FT, Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla
BTC vs NDX gap still wide... room to mean revert if risk turns.
Source: TME, LSEG
South Korea’s KOSPI hit an all-time high
(+175% YoY), led by semiconductor giants like Samsung and SK hynix, driven by soaring chip exports (+134% YoY) fueled by global AI demand. Retail investors are shifting from crypto to domestic AI and semiconductor stocks, as the “Kimchi Premium” shrinks. Source: Bull Theory
Goldman Sachs Winner and Looser
Goldman Sachs sees AI winners in hardware, cloud, infrastructure, and security (e.g., Nvidia, TSMC, Microsoft, Cloudflare), while traditional software and consulting (e.g., Salesforce, SAP, Accenture) lose as AI commoditizes code and cuts billable hours. The key: compute, power, and security beat software and platforms, reshaping the tech stack. Source: Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @MikeFritzell
The odds of a March interest rate cut have fallen to just 2%
Source: Barchart @Barchart
