From Yardeni:
“.. in our short-war scenario, oil prices should fall in the coming weeks after a ceasefire .. boosting US consumer spending and benefiting global economies .. The weekend’s Middle East developments make us even more confident in our Roaring 2020s scenario.”
Gold just finished its 7th consecutive month higher, the longest streak in history.
Source: RBC, BofA
While prices are fungible, the biggest loser from a Hormuz closure in terms of actual physical oil is China
China is the main destination of the 13.1mm barrels of oil that passes through the Strait every day. Source: zerohedge, Goldman Sachs
🚨 TTF +25% to ~€40/MWh Biggest day jump since Aug 2023. 8 month high.
Why? Hormuz risk = 15% of global LNG flows exposed, mainly Qatari cargoes. Europe replaced Russian pipeline gas with seaborne LNG. Now that LNG must pass the Gulf. Starting point isn’t comfortable: • EU storage ~31% vs ~40% last year • Germany ~20% • France ~21% Add: • Large speculative shorts • Forced short covering • Front-month panic buying If Qatari LNG is materially disrupted for weeks, analysts see €80–100/MWh possible. Source: Jack Prandelli
Israel’s stock exchange is up 8.85% in live markets now.
The local index is up 3.74% today as well. It looks absurd as missiles fly toward Israel. However, markets are likely pricing in the perception of a "decisive victory" and long-term risk reduction of Iran. Source: Trading View, Serenity
CHART OF THE DAY: European Gas prices are now up 45% after the Qatari LNG production halts
Using European benchmark TTF as a proxy, here's the price chart of the last few years. Source: Javier Blas, Bloomberg
WILL $BITCOIN $BTC REPEAT THE EXACT SAME PATTERN FROM 2022 ?
If yes, current rebound could be a bull trap with the bottom still way lower than current level. Let see if history repeats Source: Leviathan @TechLeviathan on X
TRILLION DOLLAR BABY
Samsung becomes the first Korean company to reach a $1 trillion market capitalization. Source: Jukan @jukan05
