There were winners today...
VIX 17 call expiring tomorrow (Wednesday) was basically worthless earlier today... Source: TME, Refinitiv
Bitcoin' Electrical Cost, the rock solid historical price floor for Bitcoin, is at $31.6K today.
It will double in 63 days. Source: Capriole, Charles Edwards
$LYFT is surging 63.73% (!) after hours after beating earnings (500bps EBITDA margins expansion) and providing a stellar outlook 👀
But under 1 hour later, the CFO said there was a typo in their earnings release... saying they meant to report a 50 basis point increase in EBITDA margin (instead of 500bps). In other words, EBITDA margin was reported to be 10 TIMES what it actually is... The stock ended up being 18% after hours... Source: Markets & Mayhem, The Kobeissi Letter
VIX panic kicking in.
VIX has not closed here since the melt up started in late October 2023. You do not compare volatility to trending assets over time, but the shorter term chart shows a clear picture. VIX panic is here. Source: TME, Refinitiv
Stock-to-Flow (S2F) simplified: ALL bitcoin upside is around halvings.
If you split BTC price in 2 parts, one around halvings (green) and one between halvings (red), then you see that ALL gain is around halvings. Ergo: halvings/S2F/scarcity is the root cause of BTC value. Source: PlanB @100trillionUSD
Has the market become too complacent?
Goldman Sachs Panic Index is near decade lows. Source: Win Smart
The Magnificent Seven now have a higher market cap than the entire stock markets of Japan, France, the United Kingdom and Mexico COMBINED!
source : barchart
Headline CPI and Core CPI came out hotter than expected. SuperCore is the hottest since May 2023
-> Headline CPI: o Consumer prices rose 0.3% MoM (more than the 0.2% expected), driving the YOY change to 3.1% YoY versus 2.9% expected. Still, the decline from the +3.4% shows the disinflation trend is in place o Under the hood, food and Energy services costs jumped MoM along with transportation services -> Core CPI: o The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.4% MoM in January, the biggest jump since April 2023. The shelter index increased 0.6% MoM in January and was the largest factor in the monthly increase in the index for all items less food and energy. o Core CPI fell below 4.00% YoY for the first time since May 2021, but the +3.86% YoY print was hotter than the 3.7% expected. -> SuperCore CPI: o Core CPI Services Ex-Shelter index soared 0.7% MoM (the biggest jump since September 2022), driving the YoY change up to +4.4% - the hottest since May 2023 (see chart below). Our take: The disinflation trend remains in place. However, the “easy part” of the disinflationary process is behind. Buoyant final demand might sustain some upward pressures on prices. This data raises the odds that the Fed will stay put in March. Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
