Global Supply Chain Stress is easing
Source: Bloomberg
Current market expectations for path of the Fed Funds Rate..
-Feb 2023: 25 bps hike to 4.50%-4.75% -Mar 2023: 25 bps hike to 4.75%-5.00% -Pause -Rate cuts start in Dec 2023, continue in 2024... Source: Charlie Bilello
Global Venture Capital investment in digital asset start-ups
Crypto venture investments dips further post-FTX collapse Source: Bloomberg
Another sign of economic growth softening in the US?
US Small-Business Optimism Falls to Second-Weakest Since 2013 - Bloomberg
Microsoft is in talks to acquire a 49% stake in ChatGPT owner OpenAI
OpenAI is currently raising funds at a $29 billion valuation and is allowing employees along with early investors to sell their shares at that valuation. Microsoft has already invested $1bn into the company in 2019 and is now looking to invest another $10B into OpenAI. Microsoft would receive 75% of OpenAI’s income until it has recovered its initial investment. Once they hit that threshold, they would have a 49% stake in OpenAI, with other investors taking another 49% and OpenAI's nonprofit parent getting 2%. Open AI are expected to generate ~1 Billion in revenue in 2024. Source: Finimize Image: The first day of OpenAI, 7 years ago (by Sam Altman)
What is the US real footprint?
US is punching well above its weight, Ruchir Sharma says. US stock market value has reached 60% of global total, which is 15% higher than its long-term average. But the US real footprint much smaller: ~50% of corpate earnings, 25% of world GDP, 1/5th of listed companies and 4% of global population. Source: FT, HolgerZ
A death cross is looming on the dollar
The dollar continued sliding today, now at its lowest since June 2022 (and a death cross is looming). Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
Recession hasn't been discounted by the stock market
Historically, the ERP (Equity Risk Premium) rises materially when a recession arises. So don't assume it is priced. Source: Morgan Stanley
