97% Of All Bitcoin Will Be Mined In April of 2024 For the 4th Halving...
As a reminder: The single most important event for Bitcoin is the halving. Satoshi Nakamoto coded Bitcoin to half the reward payouts to miner's every 210,000 blocks. This event occurs approximately every four years and is a form of artificial inflation control, similar to a central bank printing less money. The halving ensures that the total supply of Bitcoin caps at 21 million, making it a deflationary asset. In simpler terms, as more time goes on, less and less Bitcoin are created. Every other fiat currency in existence is inflationary in nature. As more time goes on, more are created, thus making the currency you hold less valuable. This is what separates Bitcoin from everything else and why many believe that is is a digital store of value. As a function of economics and as Bitcoin's adoption rate grows, this means that demand will most likely outpace supply by a wide margin. The chart below shows past halving events and their market impact. Source: Jacob Canfield
The way to build wealth, is over the long-term:
Source: Invest In Assets | Stock Market Investing 📈
U.S. Investment Corporate Bond Spreads hit lowest level since April 2022 signaling that the Federal Reserve is likely done raising rates
This visual measures the additional yield investors need to own bonds rather than treasuries. Source: Barchart, Bloomberg
Hedging demand has fallen sharply with the cost to protect against a market selloff down by around 10%, or one-standard deviation, tumbling to the lowest ever in data starting in 2013
Demand for tail-risk hedges that pay out in an equity fall as precipitous as 30% has also dropped and is hovering around the lowest level since March.- Bloomberg
As highlighted by The Kobeissi Letter, a record ~40% of all US homes currently do NOT have mortgages
At first, this seems like great news, but it really just emphasizes how UNAFFORDABLE this market is. Currently, a record ~35% of housing market transactions are all cash purchases. In other words, this market is becoming ONLY affordable for those who are buying with CASH. As interest rates hit 20-year highs and home prices are up 30%+ since 2020, affordability is only getting worse. This is called an affordability crisis. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Hong Kong local bank rate (HIBOR) jumped to its highest level in 16 years
Source: Barchart, Bloomberg
Nasdaq has now listed 0DTE Options (Zero Days to Expiry) for ETFS tracking silver, gold, oil, natural gas, and treasuries. Let the games begin! 🎰
Financial Times >>> "Trading in a controversial type of derivative known as “zero-day” options is spreading to Treasury and commodity markets, as Nasdaq and other exchange groups try to replicate a boom that has transformed trading in US stock indices. Nasdaq this week listed a series of new options contracts tracking some of the most popular exchange traded funds investing in gold, silver, natural gas, oil and long-term Treasuries. Options contracts give investors the right to buy or sell an asset at a fixed price by a given date. Trading a contract on the day it expires is known as zero-day trading and can be used to bet on or hedge against extremely short-term market moves. Zero-day trading in options tied to the S&P 500 index boomed in popularity during the coronavirus pandemic. Initially viewed as a temporary phenomenon driven by speculative retail traders, the surge sparked concern among some analysts and regulators that it could create systemic risk by exacerbating market moves. Source: FT, Barchart
Nvidia quarterly report lifts earnings estimates support for mega-cap tech valuations, i.e nvdia / "mag 7" are trading cheaper AFTER Nvidia blowout results
Source: Macrobond, TME
