Healthy gains heading into May have historically been a good signal of a positive year for stocks.
Since 1982, when the stock market was higher on the year heading into May, it went on to post a full-year gain roughly 90% of the time. In that period, 1987, 2011 and 2015 were the only years in which the market was higher from January to April but finished the year lower.1 There were nine years in which the year-to-date increase heading into May was in the 6.5%–9.5% range, comparable to 2024’s 8% year-to-date gain. In those instances, the stock market went on to post an average full-year increase of 13%. Source: Edward Jones
Bitcoin ETFs now sit at nearly $60 Billion in assets.
To put that into perspective, GLD, which is the largest gold ETF, has a total AUM of $62 billion. Source: Bloomberg
Cocoa beans are the new AI. 🍫
Now up +161% YTD. Source: Trend Spider
Any person capable of angering you becomes your master
Source: Psyche Wizard
“We never look at any analyst reports. If I read one it was because the funny papers weren’t available. I don’t understand why people do it.” - Warren Buffett
Source: MastersInvest.com
Index investing vs active management, visualized on one chart
By Brian Feroldi
A number of Central Banks have begun to add gold to their reserves since Russia invaded Ukraine.
Chart from Alpine Macro. According to the IMF there is about $12 trillion of currency reserves held globally. That is nearly the market value of the gold stock, but according to Alpine Macro only about $3 trillion of gold is potentially available for central banks to purchase. While other factors need to be taken into account, Central banks buying is likely creating a supply/demand imbalance. Source: Crit Thomas, Alpine Macro
The Dow-to-Gold ratio has now backtested for the second time, after breaking down below its 25-year triangle.
And the chart is now very close to making an expected lower low, which will confirm the historical trend change. Is gold now set to outperform the general stock market? Source: Graddhy - Commodities TA+Cycles
