3 Aug 2023
The average interest rate on US credit card balances has spiked to 20.7%
With data going back to 1994, that's the highest rate we've ever seen. Meanwhile, delinquency rates on credit card loans from small lenders are now at an all time high of 7.1%. That's above the 6.0% peak in 2008 and up sharply from 3.8% in 2020. Source: Charlie Bilello, The Kobeissi Letter
3 Aug 2023
US interest expenses have surged by about 50% in the past year, to nearly $1 trillion on an annualized basis
Source: Lisa Ambramowicz, Bloomberg
3 Aug 2023
Note that US Sovereign risk (aka CDS on 1-year US Treasury) was completely unmoved by the Fitch downgrade.
Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
3 Aug 2023
Treasuries haven’t been this ineffective as a stock hedge since the 1990s. The one-month correlation between the two assets is now at its highest reading since 1996
Source: Lisa Abramowicz, Bloomberg
3 Aug 2023
Who is left in the AAA club? (the US is now split-rated AA+)
Source: Jim Bianco, Bloomberg
3 Aug 2023
The survivorship bias
It is a sample bias that occurs when we assess only successful outcomes and disregard failures. See below example with strikes on returning and non-returning planes during WWII Source: Mnke Daniel
3 Aug 2023
Hedgeye about investors going nuts (do they?)
Source: Hedgeye
3 Aug 2023
The US bond Market has now been in a drawdown for 3 years, by far the longest in history
Source: Charlie Bilello
