With “risk free” rates above 5%, the typically low-growth, high-dividend payers in the sp500 are massively underperforming in 2023
The 101 non-dividend payers are up 20.4% YTD, while the 100 highest yielders in the index are down an average of 3.5% on a total return basis. Source: Bespoke
Only 16% of Californians can afford to buy a home, a situation that is unfortunately not unique to the state, but where they are leading the way
Source: Markets & Mayhem, Bloomberg
According to Morgan Stanley research last year. $AAPL has an estimated 860 million subscriptions sold
If this is correct, Apple could raise the monthly price by $1 per month on these subscriptions and generate an incremental $10 billion per year in revenue. Apple has set themselves up with a simple pricing lever that can generate incremental high-margin returns for years ahead. Source: Morgan Stanley, Joseph Carlson
Advantage greece... A decade ago, Germany was giving lessons to Greece how to run its economy. Things can quickly change.
Source: Michael A.Arouet
From T.I.N.A (There is No Alternatives to risk assets) to T.A.R.A (There Are Reasonable Alternatives, i.e bonds)
Three years ago in August 2020, the S&P’s dividend yield (in red below) was 1.8%, almost 50 bps higher than the highest yield on the treasury curve. Every treasury note with a duration shorter than 5 years had a yield below 0.2% and the 1-month was almost ZERO. Fast forward to today and the S&P’s dividend yield of 1.55% is 260 bps lower than the lowest point on the treasury curve right now (the 10-year at 4.15%). And the 1-month T-bill yielding at 5.34% is 380 basis points higher than the S&P’s dividend yield. Source: Bespoke
Many are concerned that higher rates will hurt growth, but it turns out that a lot of S&P 500 companies have locked in debt at much lower rates until 2030
Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs
The comeback of bond vigilantes: US 10y real rates have jumped to 1.77%, almost the highest level since 2009
Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
President Joe Biden blasted China’s economic problems as a “ticking time bomb” and referred to Communist Party leaders as “bad folks”
His latest barb against President Xi Jinping’s government even as his administration seeks to improve overall ties with Beijing. In comments that included several major inaccuracies about the world’s second-largest economy, Biden said at a political fundraiser Thursday that China was in “trouble” because its growth has slowed and it had the “highest unemployment rate going.” He also blasted Xi’s signature Belt and Road Initiative as the “debt and noose,” because of the high levels of lending to developing economies associated with the global investment program. Although Biden misrepresented key statistics about China, overall outlook remains grim. This chart by Bloomberg thru Holger Z is a harsh remainder of the amount of leverage in the Chinese economy. As growth slows down alongside deflationary threat, this could become a major issue. Source: Bloomberg
