Syz the moment

Phillips 66 closed above its upper Bollinger band, indicating shares may be overbought. In the past 12 months, the stock has crossed above this level 10 times and fell an average of 5.6% in the next 20 days. Can it break?
Source: Bloomberg

Over-optimistic sentiment can stay extended / “stretched” for long periods of time. Source: Goldman Sachs

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slumped to a 15-month low, with the gauge now down over 11% from a September peak. hedgefunds had been bracing for weakness, as they turned net sellers of the dollar for the first time since March, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission aggregated by Bloomberg. The dollar’s resilience has confounded bears who had warned that the currency was headed for a multi-year decline following a surge in 2022. But there’s a growing conviction that they may finally be proven right as easing inflation backs the case for the us central bank to wrap up its rate-hike campaign in the coming months. Source: Bloomberg

Is this the biggest risk for the equity "bears". As highlighted by Goldman, there is a $5 Trillion “wedge” between Money Market Funds and bonds vs. equities... As investors realize that the much feared recession is not happening, they might be willing to move from the sidelines back into risk assets. Goldman's Rubner calls it a "R.I.N.O market" (Recession In Name Only).

Source: C. Barraud

On the back of the lower us cpi print, Euro rose sharply against dollar, closing at the highest level since March 2022, completely decoupled from its macro data.. Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge,com

Global investors holding $70 trillion in wealth are the biggest underserved candidates for private alternative assets. At a glance: -> Many wealthy investors want to increase their holdings of private alternative assets, with between $8 trillion and $12 trillion in household funds available for such assets. private equity firms and asset and wealth managers are eager to expand their business with individuals. -> For this market to thrive, the current model must evolve into a robust digital system that can efficiently support individual investors at scale. -> Five business archetypes are emerging to overcome the current barriers of high administrative costs, illiquidity, a difficult collateral process for lending, and high minimum investment size. -> The largest wealth and asset managers will likely catalyze developments and can seize a first-mover advantage. Other firms can thrive as challengers or fast followers. Find out more in the Bain & Company research note attached. Grégory Garnier Sound: Bain & Company

High-yield market contracts 13% from 2021 peak amid fears of false signals about American economy’s health.
A steep rise in interest rates since early last year has helped deter companies from selling new bonds, while several companies have climbed out of the high-yield market into investment grade territory. The spread has simultaneously widened out to 4.05% from roughly 3%.
Source: Financial Times