Bitcoin mining by country
Source: Bitcoin News via BitcoinPierre
US ISM manufacturing drops to 46.3, the lowest since May 2020, the month after the COVID recession ended
March ISM Manufacturing came out at 46.3 vs. 47.5 est. & 47.7 in prior month; new orders are down to 44.3, prices paid back into contraction at 49.2, and production edged slightly higher (but still contracting at 47.8). Employment fell further into contraction (lowest since July 2020). ISM started surveying in 1948. As this chart shows, this is the 16th time the ISM has been 46.3 or lower. 12 (75%) of these instances, the economy was either in recession or about to enter a recession Source: Liz Ann Sonders, Bianco Research, Bloomberg
The S&P500 has been failing regularly up here since last summer
Source: J-C Parets, All Star Charts
The most inverted US yield curve since the 80s
The 3-Month Treasury bill yield of 4.97% is now 1.42% higher than the 10-Year Treasury bond yield (3.55%). With data going back to 1962, only March 7, 1980 (recession: Feb-Jul 1980) had a more inverted yield curve than today. Source: Charlie Bilello
Eurozone headline inflation cools down: core inflation hits all-time-high
Eurozone headline inflation cools significantly to 6.9% YoY in March, down from 8.5% in February and lowest level since February 2022, AND lower than estimated 7.1% Bloomberg poll. But core inflation, which excludes volatile items, quickened to 5.7%, a fresh All-Time-High, showing inflation pressure remains high. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Germany's headline inflation eased significantly but less than expected
Germany's headline inflation eased significantly but less than expected AND underlying price pressure keeps rising. CPI dropped from 8.7% in Feb to 7.4% in March overshooting expectations of 7.3%. Core CPI rose from 5.7% to 5.9%, according to Commerzbank calculations. Source: HolgerZ
The US Treasury cash balance just reached another recent low
The latest government report is out, and the US Treasury cash balance just reached another recent low. Only $187 billion is left. Let's keep in mind that February's deficit alone cost $262 billion. Ultimately, this could mean that we are about to see another flood of Treasury issuances if/when the debt ceiling issue gets resolved. Will the natural supply/demand mismatch caused by this dynamic pressure yields higher and create further problems in the fixed-income market= Source: Boomberg, Tavi Costa, Crescat Capital
This is the first time the MOVE index has reached 200 with a VIX index below 40!
It is very rare that the volatility of the Treasury bond market (MOVE Index) is much higher than the volatility of the equity market (VIX Index)! The current level of the MOVE index should be accompanied by a VIX above 30 at least! How long will this dichotomy last? Source : Macrobond
