Bespokeinvest posted: "Here's one way to think about investing in equities and "buy and hold."
Casinos make money by making sure bettors eventually lose more often than they win. The stock market is the opposite. The longer you play, the better your odds. Historically, the odds of the S&P 500 being up over any one-month time frame have been 62.6%. Over a year, the odds of being up jump to 74.6%, and over eight years, they jump to 97%. Since 1928, all 16+ year time frames have seen positive returns. Check out this chart Bespokeinvest created to help people visualize this data a couple of years ago (updated through July 2023):
World’s Biggest Wine Producers by Country
Source: Visual Capitalist
The last time US 10Y yields were this far above sp500 dividend yields was sept/oct 2007 (BNP Paribas funds liquidate, Fed slashes rates, market peaks...)
Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
S&P 500 to 10-year note ratio is going parabolic
Source: barchart, The Daily Shot
How to analyze a 10-K
Source: Compounding Quality / Chris Quinn
This is not the price chart of a meme stock going under or a "pump and dump" altcoin
This is the Austria AA+ 100 year bond being hammered by the rise of bond yields... The price of the 100 year Austrian government bond has plunged near all-time lows and is trading 72% below its All-Time-High. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Orange juice futures are trading like a meme stock! The surge is mainly driven by #supply driven (exarcebated by speculators positioning). The 2 supply issues are the following:
1/ Extreme weather intensified by global heating ravaged this season’s crop of the citrus fruit: last year Florida, which produces more than 90% of the US’s orange juice supply, was hit by Hurricane Ian, Hurricane Nicole and freezing conditions in quick succession, devastating orange producers in the Sunshine State. 2/ A bacterial disease -> Florida Producers battled an incurable citrus greening disease that is spread by an invasive insect, rendering fruit unusable. Most infected trees die within a few years, and some producers said they were giving up farming and selling their land. Industry figures said US orange production would reach its lowest level for more than a century. Source: The Guardian, Longview Economics
Why this time is different (I know this is a dangerous sentence...)
Asset managers are very long 10-year futures, expecting yields to fall from here! This is a very different set-up than in 2007 when asset managers were expecting #yields to rise... Source: Bloomberg
