Disinflation in one chart
In the 90s, a company needed 8 employees to generate $1 million in revenues. Due to technology, now it needs 2. Source: MacroAlf
Fed fund rate above Core PCE for the first time since the pandemic!
For the first time since February 2020, Fed funds rates are positive in real terms as the Core PCE index came out at 4.4% (vs. 4.5% for the Fed funds rate). This bodes well for an imminent halt in rate hikes, unless the US economy surprises on the upside. Source: Bloomberg
The UK has been lagging other developed economies
Souce: Bloomberg
More evidence of a decline in the US Inflation Rate...
The PCE Price Index moved down to 5%, its lowest level since September 2021. Peak was 7% in June 2022. Source: Charlie Bilello
Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon...
This chart highlights that #inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. Eurozone M3 growth slows to 4.1% in Dec from 4.8% in Nov. Lower money supply growth will bring inflation down further. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Tech valuations are normalizing
Each generation has its own bubble. Pain after the burst is so severe that it requires new generation of inexperienced investors to become irrational again. Source: LeutholdGroup. Michel A.Arouet
The US government has almost completely ceased the drawing of its Strategic Petroleum Reserves
The US government has almost completely ceased the drawing of its Strategic Petroleum Reserves. We just saw the smallest change in SPR for over a year. Not surprising that oil prices firmed up recently as supply remains incredibly tight. Source: Bloomberg, Tavi Costa
End of the tightening cycle for the Bank of Canada?
The Bank of Canada (BoC) raised its policy rate by 25bps to 4.5%, its highest level since 2008. Surprisingly, the central bank and its governor Tiff Macklem stated that the policy rate will be held at its current level unless economic data (#inflation) surprises on the upside. Source: Bloomberg.
