Will Lagarde / ECB cut rates sooner than anticipated ?
Source: AndreasSteno
The 2pct mindset
Source: Seek Wiser
Demographics is becoming a serious issue for US growth
As shown on the chart below, US population growth has collapsed, reaching levels near 0% indicating almost NO growth. This is actually the worst population growth setup seen in over 100 years of US history. Current levels have NEVER been seen in 100+ years. Even during the Great Depression, population growth bottomed out at around 0.5% Source: Game of trades
The ENORMOUS EIGHT 2022-2023 Combined Total Returns...
Nvidia $NVDA: +56% Microsoft $MSFT: +8% Apple $AAPL: +2% S&P 500 $SPY: -6% Meta $META: -6% Nasdaq 100 $QQQ: -6% Google $GOOGL: -10% Amazon $AMZN: -16% Netflix $NFLX: -28% Tesla $TSLA: -38%
CTAs are currently short $52 billion in U.S. equities, the largest short position in AT LEAST 5 years
Source: barchart
S&P 500 Index at resistance level
S&P 500 Index has made a 6.5% rebound since end of October lows. Trend remains bearish, keep an eye on last swing high resistance 4345-4378. Will it have enough strenght to break this level ?
Crude Oil approaching support
Crude Oil WTI has now consolidated 17% since September high ! It's approaching last swing low support. Keep an eye at 77.62 level.
The chart below shows the distribution of interest rates on outstanding US mortgages
Over 30% of borrowers have rates below 3%, up from just ~5% of borrowers prior to the pandemic. Virtually no new mortgages are being taken out at 7%+ interest rates that we currently see. real estate market seems to be frozen Source: The Kobeissi Letter, ICE
