BREAKING: US new home prices are now down 20% from their highs, in bear market territory, and falling faster than rates seen in 2008, according to Reventure.
New home prices peaked in late-2022 at $497,000 and have fallen to $401,000 as of the latest data. In the financial crisis, new home prices dropped by 23% from 2007-2010, according to Reventure. US Home prices are down roughly the same amount in just 1.5 years, or half the amount of time. Still, new home prices are ~20% above pre-pandemic levels and existing home supply is near record lows. Is the hashtag#us housing market beginning to crack? Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Re-venture
Chocolate Lovers are Going To Have A Hard Time In The Next Few Months!
Yes, folks, the price of cocoa is witnessing a scorching rally (cocoa nears $10,000 per ton), which has led to mind-boggling prices for the raw material used to prepare chocolates. The insane PRICE INCREASE can be attributed to the significant supply disruptions in Africa and leveraged speculators🚨 Source: Sagar Singh, Wall Street Silver Image: openart.ai
Central banks cut rates at the fastest pace since heading into the pandemic.
Source: BofA, The Daily Shot
US High Yield Credit Spreads have moved down to 3.05%, their tightest level since January 2022.
US Investment Grade Credit Spreads have moved down to 0.91%, their tightest level since November 2021. Source: Charlie Bilello
In May 2020, there were 21 countries with negative interest rates. Today there are none.
Sanity has returned to the global bond market... Source: Charlie Bilello
With real estate bubble bursting, no access to foreign equities and bitcoin, no wonder that people are flocking to gold.
Source: Bloomberg, Michel A.Arouet
Oil prices are now up 17% this year and well above $80/barrel again.
OPEC remains committed to production cuts and geopolitical tensions have threatened supply. Meanwhile, global demand forecasts are being raised and inflation is rebounding. Even as non-OPEC production is at record highs, oil prices continue to skyrocket. It seems like high oil prices are just the new normal for consumers. And it is not gooing to help healdine inflation to move back to the Fed's target. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
THE WEEK AHEAD... All eyes on inflation data + Powell speech on Friday
>>> In the US: 1. New Home Sales data - Monday 2. CB Consumer Confidence - Tuesday 3. US Q4 2023 GDP data - Thursday 4. February PCE Inflation data - Friday 5. hashtag#Fed Chair Powell Speaks - Friday 6. Total of 5 Fed Speaker Events >>> Inflation will also be the key theme in europe as flash CPI reports start to come in. >>> In Japan, the focus will be on the summary of opinions from this week's BoJ meeting as well as the Tokyo CPI, labour market data and industrial production. Picture via openart.ai/midjourney
