This chart from Arch Economics sums up what's wrong with anyone pointing to unemployment as a sign the labor market is "solid."
If not for collapsing labor force participation since April, unemployment would've climbed to 4.9% today instead of 4.25%. Source: Parker Ross @Econ_Parker, Arch Global Economics
Should we fear bearish engulfing patterns on the S&P 500?
Fundstrat: " $SPX and equities are overbought. So a bit of consolidation is expected. But we believe the risk/reward for stocks remains favorable. And we think stocks will likely be higher 2 weeks from now." Source: Seth Golden @SethCL
Market expectations for Fed rate cuts have shifted sharply lower after weaker-than-expected US jobs data.
Investors are now pricing in 62bps of rate cuts for the rest of the year, up from ~35bps before the report. The probability of a rate cut at Sep17 meeting has jumped to 92%. Source: Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner
Berkshire Reaching Major Support Zone
Berkshire Hathaway has consolidated more than 15% since the May highs and is now approaching the major swing support zone between 440-456. Keep an eye on the price action over the next few days for potential developments. Source: Bloomberg
🚨: China bans cryptocurrency for the 1000th time 👻😱🫂
Source: Barchart
The german stockmarket’s brief comeback (as a percentage of world's market cap) appears to be over – at least for now.
The surge in US big tech stocks, the underperformance of German equities, and a weakening Euro have pushed Germany’s share of global stock market capitalization down to 2.2%, from 2.4% in May. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Berkshire Hathaway’s cash position is now 30% of their total assets, the most in history.
Source: Barchart
In the us, leverage is with the government, and less with companies and households.
Indeed, household debt outstanding as a share of US GDP is down over the past decade. Lowest since 2002. Source: BofA
