Here's another retaliation from China...
Beijing just crossed a line in the sand. The PBOC fixing was on the other side of the closely watched 7.20 "devaluation" line, first time since 2023. Offshore yuan tumbles and is about to hit a record low against the USD. Source: zerohedge
China is getting ready to retaliate.
Putting upward pressure on US Treasuries (by dumping UST) could be their own "art of a deal"... Other options: China has basically three options: 1. Concede defeat to whatever terms Trump demands 2. Devalue the yuan by 20-40% (watch the offshore yuan this morning...) 3. Unleash biggest fiscal stimulus in its history (talking $2-3 trillion)
The VIX Is Pricing In A Recession, While Junk (Still) Sees Zero Risk
➡️ SocGen's Jitesh Kumar writes that high yields spreads remain below 4%, and "we have never been in recession with high yield spreads below 4.5% (data going back to 1987)." In other words, US HY credit spreads are pricing in 0% recession probability. ➡️ However while credit remains complacent, one asset is starting blast a recession warning siren: according to UBS trader Antonya Allen, the VIX is now pricing in a recession. Which one will be correct? Source: SocGen, www.zerohedge.com
The story of yesterday >>>
US 10 year yields are back to Liberation Day while stocks are 10% lower...Are US Treasuries losing their safe have status? Or was it related to China dumping more treasuries as part of their retaliation plan? As Goldman's Mike Washington writes, there were lot of client questions on what is behind the higher yields; GS rates specialist Mike Cassell writes, “A lot of supply coming up in 10s and 30s later this week...and we are seeing increasing numbers of clients worried about stagflation + fiscal expansion+ lack of sponsorship of issuance. On the stagflation note, we had FOMC Kugler out earlier today saying inflation more an urgent issue than growth...this is a toxic mix if so. Flow wise we have seen HF paying the belly in swap and large selloff/steepening on futures flows.” And of course, China may well be selling in retaliation to Trump's tariffs; we'll know soon enough. Source: www.zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
Has a new secular BEAR MARKET begun in the US?
The US share in the global stock market has fallen 3-4 percentage points since its November 2024 peak of 67%. This comes as the US has significantly underperformed other markets this year. Many investors are not ready for this.. Source: BofA, Global Markets Investor
Well said by Peter Mallouk >>>
"It’s been a rough year so far for US equity markets, but we’ve been through much worse in the past and gotten through it. We’ll get through this as well. As Abraham Lincoln once said: This, too, shall pass.”
A sea of red in crypto markets ahead of Asian opening. Doesn't smell good...
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We need to monitor corporate spreads very closely
Source: Apollo
