Syz the moment

Historically, Nov-Jan is the strongest period for the Russell 2000. Source: David Marlin @Marlin_Capital, BofA

While Google’s latest woes seem to center on the DOJ’s antitrust efforts, the search-engine giant may soon face another — perhaps even greater — threat to its moat: losing its dominance in search ads. In 2023, Google earned over $175 billion (or 57% of Alphabet’s total sales) solely from search advertising. However, Google is gradually losing ground in the $300 billion-strong global market for search ads, as both users and advertisers shift to competitors like Amazon and AI tools, The Wall Street Journal reports. According to data from eMarketer, Google’s share of the search-advertising market is forecast to drop below 50% next year for the first time since tracking began in 2008, with revenue growing at a modest 7.6% year over year. Meanwhile, Amazon’s search-ad revenue surged by 17.6% over the same period. Indeed, users are increasingly turning to platforms like Amazon or TikTok for their shopping searches and general queries, according to WSJ. The seemingly inevitable rise of AI is also playing a role: a survey from New Street Research found that nearly 60% of US consumers used a chatbot to help them decide on a purchase in the past 30 days. Source: Chartr, WSJ

Since the end of the 2008 Financial Crisis, this percentage has increased by ~25 points. By comparison, Europe and Japan’s share have dropped by ~15 and ~5 percentage points, respectively. As a result, the US' share of global market cap is now 4 TIMES larger than Europe and Japan COMBINED. This comes as the S&P 500 has rallied 450% over the last 15 years compared to a 70% and 310% gain of the Euro Stoxx 50 and Nikkei 225. The US stock market has never been larger. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, SG Cross Asset Research, Factset

S&P 500 rallied after both elections.

They need to be really polite to Trump‘s administration... Source: Econovisuals, Eurostat

After a 47% consolidation over 2 years, Roche (ROG SW) broke its downtrend in June and has seen a 35% rally since the lows, suggesting that the low is now in place. The market is now back in the demand zone between 238-251, and we’re observing strong price action. The next key resistance to watch is 293.55. Source: Bloomberg

Ask chatgpt... "...while Bitcoin’s use and accessibility can be curtailed through regulatory and technical measures, stopping it entirely would require a coordinated, global effort against its decentralized network—a task that seems nearly impossible given its current scale and adoption".

Source: Barchart