Why is it happening?
With Interest Expense soaring and US debt/GDP at 125% & rising, the only way the US can keep USTs nominally money good are via negative real rates. hence the gold outperformance. Source: Bloomberg, Luke Gromen
Interesting point of view by Dr. Ed Yardeni:
"28 days since the 1st rate cut and 10-Yr. yield is up nearly +60bps. The 1995 Soft Landing rate cut cycle is almost a mirror image, as it also started its descent a few days later, a potential post-election outcome". There is one big difference though: the fiscal 6 debt situation in the US now vs. 1995... Source: Seth Golden @SethCL
Inflation surprises are picking up since Fed rate cut...
Source: www.zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
😱 Do you remember Beyond Meat ?
Source: Radar
US employment numbers are out... and what a miss... 😱
🚨 It is indeed a confusing US jobs report with ugly headline numbers. US economy added just 12k jobs, according to Establishment Survey, far below consensus forecast of +100k and down from +223k in September. 🚨 Private payrolls were negative 28k, below the Street’s +70k forecast and down from +192k in September. 🌪 August was revised down by 81,000, from +159,000 to +78,000, 🌪 September was revised down by 31,000, from +254,000 to +223,000 👉 Odds of a 25 bps Fed cut next week increase per SOFR. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Despite talks of de-dollarisation, America dominance has never been that strong:
• US stock exchanges capture more than half of global free-float market capitalisation • US share of global stock market is 2.3 times its share of global GDP — the highest-ever ratio Source: Agathe Demarais @AgatheDemarais
Tether's latest Q3 attestation reports $4.78 billion worth of Bitcoin when BTC was $63,473
At today's prices, that same amount of Bitcoin is worth $5.3 billion. In total, the value of their assets is over $6 billion more than the value of their liabilities. Source: Bitcoin News BitcoinNewsCom
Givaudan Back on Major Swing Support
Givaudan (GIVN SW) is down 13% since its high at the end of September. The trend remains bullish, and the stock is back on a major swing support zone between 4020-4130. This level is critical, as it also represents the breakout level from April 2022. Keep an eye on this important support! Source: Bloomberg
