US stock market current mood in one picture
Source: Heisenberg - Mr_Derivatives
Michael Burry is an outstanding contrarian investor and did exceptionally well during the 2006-2008 US housing crash
However, performance is not always repeatable and his next bets haven't paid off that well (at least the market views shared publicly - hedge fund long-term performance looks quite strong on a sharper ratio basis). Adam Khoo had a look at all of Michael Burry's recent predictions and he shared it with a chart on X. Here's a summary: In 2005, Predicted the collapse of the subprime mortgage market -> Housing market crashes in 2008, Global Financial Crisis. On Dec 2015, he predicted that the stock market would crash within the next few months. -> SPX +11% Next 12 months. On May 2017, he predicted a global financial meltdown-> SPX +19% Next 12 months. On Sept 2019, he predicted that the stock market would crash due to a bubble in index ETFs -> SPX +15% Next 12 months. Source: Adam Khoo Trader
China's credit landscape under stress!
Ever since the shockwaves of the #CountryGarden upheaval, the Chinese credit landscape has been undergoing a seismic shift. The credit default swap (#CDS) market tells a compelling story - #China's 5-year CDS is on a relentless rise (+25bps), and the Markit iTraxx Asian ex Japan #InvestmentGrade index is soaring (+30bps). Foreign investors are strategically repositioning, swiftly #divesting their holdings in Chinese #assets, particularly on the domestic front. Can the #PBOC orchestrate the necessary #stimulus maneuvers to put an end to this spiral of uncertainty?
We are approaching quite a formidable global #debt maturity wall...
Source: Markets & Mayhem, Morgan Stanley
BofA’s private clients have been dumping growth stocks while loading on Japan equities
Source: The Daily Shot, BofA
Russia’s central bank raises its key interest rate to 12% from 8.5% at an emergency meeting called after the Ruble crashed
The Ruble is recovering somewhat after its collapse, and now costs more than a penny again. Trades at 98 per Dollar. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
From T.I.N.A (There Is No Alternatives to Risk assets) to T.A.R.A (There Are Reasonable Alternatives)... 6-months US T-bills yield 94bps more than the S&P's earnings yield...
Source: Bloomberg
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway invested a total of $814 million in 3 home builder companies during the 2nd quarter. Those investments include D.R. Horton $DHI, Lennar $LEN, and $NVR
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway on Monday unveiled an $814mn investment in three US housebuilders, a bet on a sector that has benefited from dearth of supply. Berkshire disclosed it had purchased 6mn shares of DR Horton, worth about $726mn at the end of the second quarter, as well as 152,572 shares in Lennar and 11,112 shares of NVR. Shares of housebuilders and companies who service the industry have rallied this year after a difficult 2022 during which higher interest rates crimped demand. However, while higher mortgage rates have cooled the pace of existing homes sales, new homes sales have remained surprisingly robust owing to the limited supply.
