If the 34% tariff is on top of previous tariffs, China's average tariff rate is up 54 ppts this year, swamping what was done in President Trump's first term.
Question: How will China react? If China devalues the Yuan, that could trigger a major risk-off across the world... Source: Robin Brooks
JUST IN 🚨:
The odds of a U.S. Recession occurring this year just soared to 50% on Polymarket 👀 Source: Barchart
ABB Back on Very Interesting Zone
ABB has consolidated 20% since the highs and is now approaching the March 2024 breakout level. The stock is also in a major demand zone between 40.77-43.60. Keep an eye on the price action for potential opportunities. Source: Bloomberg
Despite the pullback, the S&P 500 is still NOT cheap:
As shown below, the US stock market is expensive or very expensive on 12 out of 13 valuation indicators, according to Charles Schwab analysis. Metrics like 5-year normalized P/E, P/B or Shiller's CAPE are still historically elevated despite the sell-off. Source: Charles Schwab, The Leuthold Group, Bloomberg thru Global Markets Investor
Physical gold craziness...
The big 3 vaults (Brinks, JPM, HSBC), are running out of space where to store the physical; the 3 alone hold more than 35 million oz of physical.
ISM Manufacturing Priced Paid at 69.4 - Highest since inflation's peak in June 2022
Source: Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT, MBA
On April 1, the GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q1 2025 is -3.7%.
Adjusting for gold imports, the model now sees -1.4% GDP contraction in Q1 2025. Just 2 months ago, they saw GDO growing by +3.8% in the same period...
Bull markets that make it past the two-year mark have typically consolidated in year three before heading higher again.
Source: Bespoke
