Hungary still has an inflation rate of >20%, highest inflation rate in entire EU.
Inflation is driven by food prices (Food CPI +29% YoY) as Hungary has been hit by a drought and this has caused prices to rise. In addition, there is a shortage on the labor market, low labor productivity & very expansionary macroeconomic policies. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
There is always a bear market somewhere...
The meltdown in US commercial and industrial (C&I) loan growth is staggering. Cumulative C&I lending is -1.0% since the start of 2023 (red). Median growth by this point in the year is +4.5% (black), while 2022 was up +9.3% by this point (blue). Big US investment slump is underway... Source: Robin Brooks
Food for thought
Source: Michel A.Arouet
Beware "no landing" is nothing new
Source: Michel A.Arouet
Bitcoin volatility dips to yearly lows as FOMC meeting looms
Bitcoin ended its fourth week of narrow trading Sunday, sending volatility readings to levels not seen since the year began. The 30-day estimate for the world’s largest digital asset has fallen to just 0.74%, bitcoin’s lowest realized reading since Jan. 16 (71%), data from 99Bitcoins shows.
Bitcoin’s volatility details the measurement of how much its price shifts in a single day. The investment is riskier if the reading is significant, leading to harder-to-predict price swings. T3I’s BitVol Index, used to judge 30-day implied volatility for bitcoin options contracts, has also dipped to its lowest implied reading since its inception more than four years ago, data shows.
CVI’s Crypto Volatility Index, designed to mimic similar functionality to that of the S&P 500’s VIX, has also dipped to its lowest recorded levels. The index takes into account both bitcoin and ether’s (ETH) implied volatility over a 30-day period.
Source: Blockworks
Remember the debt ceiling crisis?
Source: Charlie Bilello
Japanese stocks have an earnings yield that is 612bps above the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds
Put that in context; in the US, the gap is only 113bps. Little room for error in the US, plenty of room in Japan. This is a margin of safety concept. Source: Jeff Weniger
Investors are currently quite bearish on oil and commodities
The risk of higher energy and higher commodities prices in H2 doesn't seem to be priced by the market. Meanwhile, Crude Oil futures are pushing up against new 3-month highs. Could this be the big surprise of the second part of 2023? Source: All Star Charts
