The Yen Carry trade unwind is far from over, with total net Yen shorts being barely covered...
Source: Global_Macro @Marcomadness2
The Goldman US panic index is calculated as a rolling percentile of four equity volatility metrics
It spiked to one of the highest levels in two years in recent sessions... Source: Jason Goepfert on X
self-transformation: the ultimate superpower
Source: Compounding Quality
What a chart...
Source. Michel.A Arouet, Ht @MacroKova, Convera, Macrobond
Even as volatility is picking up, the bull market could stay intact.
Going back to 1941, whenever the S&P 500 rose by 10% or more in the first six months of the year, it has risen by 7% on average in the second half. And the percentage of time that returns were positive in the second half of the year was almost 80% vs. 66% for any given period. The one caveat is that pullbacks in the second half tend to be deeper than the first half, averaging 9%. Source: Edward Jones, Bloomberg
The S&P 500 is down 5.7% from its closing high on July 16, the largest drawdown of the year.
The index is still up 13% year-to-date including dividends. No risk, no reward. $SPX Source. Charlie Bilello
This is the most important chart in the world today: the Japanese Yen vs the USD. Why is it so important?
1. For 30 years Japan has 0% interest on their currency. 2. As a result for 30 years investor borrowed YEN at no cost and invested it globally. They invested in T-Bills abroad and a basket of risk assets including the Nasdaq. 3. For the first time in many year the BOJ increased interest rates this week by 0.25%. This was almost unprecedented. 4. As a result of the increased interest rates and the signal to the market, investors are now concerned that the money they borrowed for free is no longer free and therefore they are unwinding their trades and sending the funds back to Japan. 5. The estimated quantum of this trade is over $4 trln!! The only question that remains is how aggressive they will be. But for now WE MUST KEEP OUR EYES ON THIS CHART! If it keeps strengthening risk assets are going to get sold even more. If it weakens again then risk assets might rally (all else being equal). Source: Ran Neuner on X, Bloomberg
What does he know about Apple and the stock market that we don't?
Also interesting to see that Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway now own 4% of all T-Bills issued to the public… Buffett has ~$277 Billion. The Fed has $195 Billion. Warren Buffett is now a larger holder of US Treasury Bills than the Federal Reserve. Source: FT, Geiger Capital
