Falling inflation expectations could allow Norges Bank to hike further
In the medium term, we observe that the EUR/NOK direction tends to follow relative consumer confidence between the Euro-area and Norway. In the current economic context, this indicator is linked to inflation pessimism, and the recent positive inflection in Norway could signal the end of FX losses. In a survey published this week, households in Norway now expect inflation at 4% in one year, from 6% one quarter ago.
Falling inflation expectations could allow Norges Bank to hike further, and importantly, the revival of consumer confidence could eventually help NOK to recover.
Source: FxStreet & Société Générale
UK Bond Market Suffers Major Blow on Unforeseen Surge in UK CPI!
The UK bond market witnessed a substantial downturn due to an unexpected surge in Britain's core inflation rate, reaching its highest level in over three decades. This surprising release led to a sharp 25bps rise in the two-year UK Treasury yield. Consequently, market sentiment has shifted, with rate hike expectations now fully priced in for June, and projections even suggesting a potential 50bps increase. As a result, the terminal rate, anticipated for December 2023, is now hovering at almost 5.5%, a significant shift from less than 5% merely two days ago. Source: Bloomberg.
Diageo is testing lower end of symmetrical triangle
Diageo (DGE LN) is now trading at 3472 which is the lower end of symmetrical triangle. This pattern is in place since December 2022. Will it rebound once again ? Source : Bloomberg
Lindt & Sprungli is retesting recent breakout level
Lindt & Sprungli (LISP SW) approaching support level 10780 represented by March breakout and August 2022 highs.Keep an eye on this level. Source : Bloomberg
LVMH trying to find support on recent breakout level
LVMH (MC FP) is retesting recent breakout level 830. This support level was tested 5 times over the last 4 months. So keep an eye on it. Source : Bloomberg
ASML Holding on major resistance level 642
ASML Holding (ASML NA) is testing major resistance level 642. Will it have enough strength to break ? Source : Bloomberg
Greece’s 10-year government bond yield fell to 3.80%
The rate is down more than 110 basis points since last year’s high, taking down the spread to Italy bonds to -40bps.
Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis’s center-right New Democracy received almost 41% of the vote vs 20% for the leftist Syriza party. Mitsotakis could maybe secure a single-party government in about a month.
Will Greece be back in Investment Grade party?
Source: Bloomberg
Italy Maintains Investment Grade Status: Moody's Decision Confirmed!
In a crucial development for Italy's economic landscape, Moody's has confirmed the nation's BBB- sovereign debt rating after conducting a comprehensive review of its credit profile. This decision reinforces Italy's investment grade status, providing stability and reassurance to the market. The anticipated outcome is evident in the behavior of the spread between Italian and German 10-year yields, which has remained steady, along with remarkably low volatility in this spread over the past few weeks. Source: Bloomberg
