The Atlanta Fed's gauge of sticky inflation has risen to about 5% on a 3-month annualized basis.
Inflation is moving in the wrong direction for the Fed, so it's interesting that the market's base case is still that the Fed is going to cut rates by about 100bp by January 2025. Source: Bloomberg, Lisa Abramowitz.
Many are criticizing the "Plan B" methodology which attempt to forecast bitcoin $BTC future trajectory.
The current price ($73k) continues to follow the pattern. Like clockwork... As a reminder, "Plan B", a Dutch institutional investor, has tried to predict the theoretical value of bitcoin over time. This quantitative model, which is based on asset scarcity, was published on March 22, 2019. Called "Stock-to-flow," the model predicted a rapid rise in bitcoin's value to $55,000 once the May 2020 halving occurred. It then predicts Bitcoin to hit $100k in 2024, $500k in 2025. At the time of Plan B’s first publication, bitcoin was trading below $5,000. Source: PlanB @100trillionUSD
WARNING: Reverse Repo is falling off a cliff.
And has declined from more than $2500 billion to less than $500 billion since 2023. Source: Game of Trades
Disinflationary forces continue in Germany.
Wholesales Prices drop 0.1% MoM in Feb after +0.1% MoM in Jan, plunge 3% YoY which is a good leading indicator for German food price CPI. Sources: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Where us inflation is and where it isn’t
Source: Evan, Yahoo Finance
Nice one by Barclays...
The CNY's share of cross-border payments has overtaken the USD Source: Ronnie Stoeferle, Barclays, Bloomberg
A record number of Americans are taking hardship withdrawals from their 401k.
The figure has nearly doubled over the last four years. 40% of these hardship withdrawals are to avoid foreclosure. Source: Nick Gerli, Wall Street Journal
It is about missing the best days, not missing the worst days.
Source: Eugene NG
