SNB’s Jordan Warns New Inflation Shocks Could Hit "At Any Time"
Speaking in Bern this morning, Jordan said: “We will therefore monitor the ongoing development of inflation closely and adjust our monetary policy again if necessary.” and also cautioned there’s “no guarantee” that the current favorable consumer-price outlook will hold.
Source: Bloomberg
The chart below shared by Yahoo Finance newsletters thru Ryan Detrick, CMT shows that big starts to an election year (like '24) tend to see chop and weakness into June.
https://lnkd.in/eANaDtsN
Prediction markets now show a 36% chance of ZERO interest rate cuts in 2024, according to Kalshi.
To put this in perspective, 4 months ago there was a ~3% chance of no rate cuts in 2024. The base case has gone from 6 rate cuts to 1 rate cut this year. There is just a 31% chance of 2 or more interest rate cuts this year. In other words, there is a higher chance of NO cuts than 2 OR MORE cuts. Could it be the fastest shift in Fed expectations of all time? Source: The Kobeissi Letter
OOPS... stagflationary numbers out of US !!!
Real GDP expanded at a 1.6% rate in Q1, trailing all forecasts. Main growth engine – personal spending – rose at a slower-than-forecast 2.5% pace. BUT a closely watched measure of underlying inflation advanced at a greater-than-expected 3.7% clip... While "soft" macro data in the first 3 months of the year were "goldilocks" for markets (Growth surprising on the upside + disinflation), the effective Q1 print does not look as rosy... Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
State Fund added China ETFs to lift sentiment during rout
According to Bloomberg, China’s sovereign wealth fund has “likely bought at least USD 43 bn of onshore exchange-traded funds in the first quarter” vs. USD 6.8 bn in the second half of 2023. The extent of the buying provides insight into the government willingness to stabilize the markets during challenging periods.
China stocks: still a long way to come back to the top...
Source: Bloomberg
Quote by Peter Lynch
Source: Invest in Assets
Meta Platforms breaking the trend and filling the gap
Meta Platforms (META US) under a lot of pressure today, breaking 476 swing support. It's now on it's way to fill end of January Gap. Support zones to keep an eye on over the next few days are : 387-398 / 358-368 / 340-351.
