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It's official, higher for longer is back! For the first time this year, markets are now pricing-in just 4 interest rate cuts in 2024.
Just 6 weeks ago, markets were expecting 6 interest rate cuts in 2024. More importantly, the timing of the first rate cut has been pushed all the way back to June 2024. There is now only a 9% chance of rate cuts beginning in March 2024, down from 90% just 6 weeks ago. There is also a ~63% chance that interest rates are unchanged through May 2024. Rate cuts are all but guaranteed. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
There were winners today...
VIX 17 call expiring tomorrow (Wednesday) was basically worthless earlier today... Source: TME, Refinitiv
Bitcoin' Electrical Cost, the rock solid historical price floor for Bitcoin, is at $31.6K today.
It will double in 63 days. Source: Capriole, Charles Edwards
$LYFT is surging 63.73% (!) after hours after beating earnings (500bps EBITDA margins expansion) and providing a stellar outlook 👀
But under 1 hour later, the CFO said there was a typo in their earnings release... saying they meant to report a 50 basis point increase in EBITDA margin (instead of 500bps). In other words, EBITDA margin was reported to be 10 TIMES what it actually is... The stock ended up being 18% after hours... Source: Markets & Mayhem, The Kobeissi Letter
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