US Leading Indicators Tumble For 19th Straight Month
Worst Streak 'Since Lehman' on a year-over-year basis, the LEI is down 7.6% (down YoY for 16 straight months) - close to its biggest YoY drop since 2008 (Lehman) outside of the COVID lockdown-enforced collapse... Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
BREAKING: Binance >>>
Department of Justice is seeking a penalty of $4 billion from Binance in order to settle a criminal investigation Crypto exchange Binance is nearing a settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice to resolve a criminal investigation into alleged money laundering, bank fraud, and sanctions violations, unnamed sources told Bloomberg. If the settlement deal goes through, it would be one of the largest-ever penalties in a crypto case. Negotiations have included the possibility of criminal charges against Binance's founder and CEO Changpeng Zhao, also known as CZ. However, as it currently stands the deal would allow the crypto exchange—the world's largest by volume—to keep operating while holding its leadership accountable. If finalized, Binance would likely pay the fine as part of a deferred prosecution agreement. This would require Binance to meet prescribed conditions like overhauling compliance programs, according to the report. Source: Decrypt, Altcoin Daily
Nvidia stock hits All-Time High ahead of earnings:
The stock has gained 24% in November, on pace for its best month since a blowout earnings report in May. Nvidia has gained 245% in 2023, pushing its market value above $1.2tn. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Fed monetary policy tightening (+525 basis points of interest rates hike + $1.15 Trillion of Fed balance sheet reduction) since 2022 has been quite brutal
2023 has been a miracle so far with headline inflation declining to 3% WITHOUT a recession and no increase in unemployment rate. But can it last? What could be the lagged effects of such a tightening? (chart courtesy of Tavi Costa)
The corporate structure of OpenAI by Chartr or how a generationally-important company like OpenAI could be plunged into such chaos is partly down to its unique corporate model
Following the company's structure from top to bottom — even with a few subsidiaries thrown in — reveals that the board of directors had ultimate control to make decisions over both the nonprofit and for-profit OpenAI entities... leaving anchor investor Microsoft blindsided by Altman’s ousting just moments before the public announcement. The company that launched ChatGPT less than a year ago claims that its structure is designed to develop artificial general intelligence that’s “safe and benefits all of humanity”, with the capped profit arm of OpenAI, first introduced in 2019, able to issue equity and raise capital to further the work of the original nonprofit that was established in 2015. Source: Chartr
central banks have become dominant holders
Source: Michel A.Arouet
Be careful not to look at gold only against the dollar. Gold is at its highest against many FIAT currencies
But even the $2,000 an ounce level is intriguing: despite clearly positive real rates and the appreciation of the greenback, gold is close to all-time highs. Looking forward, two scenarios are possible: o 1) Gold is overvalued and should soon depreciate o 2) Gold is seen as a safe haven against geopolitical uncertainty, but also against the political disorder in Washington and the declining confidence in the Fed. If this is the case, a possible depreciation of the dollar and a fall in the real interest rate could benefit the yellow metal. Bottom-line: Gold remains an attractive portfolio diversifier Source chart: Tavi Costa, Bloomberg
Fiat money debasement does have some strong polical and economical consequences
Javier Milei has just won Sunday’s presidential runoff against Economy Minister Sergio Massa. Javier Milei, a 53-year-old far-right economist and former television pundit with no governing experience, claimed nearly 56% of the vote, with more than 80% of votes tallied. Voters in this nation of 46 million demanded a drastic change from a government that has sent the peso tumbling, inflation skyrocketing and more than 40 percent of the population into poverty. With Milei, Argentina takes a leap into the unknown. He has promised to fix Argentina’s perennial economic problems by making drastic budget cuts, replacing the battered peso with the US dollar and shutting down the central bank. He will take office on December 10th.
